AJK elections: Small leads may produce intriguing results

ISLAMABAD: Ten of the 12 seats allocated to the Kashmiri refugees settled in Pakistan fall in Punjab while one each lies in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

In the 2016 general elections to the Azad Jammu & Kashmir Legislative Assembly (AJKLA), all the ten Punjab seats were won by candidates fielded by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which was in power at the federal and Punjab level. Similarly, the KP seat was bagged by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) which ruled the province and the Sindh seat was taken by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which governed the province.

This time, the PTI has the federal, Punjab and KP governments while the PPP retains its previous position in Sindh. The polling for these 12 seats will be held on July 25 along with 33 directly contested constituencies located in the AJK territorial limits.

The refugee seats are LA-34 Jammu & others-1 Jhang; LA-35 Jammu & others-2 Gujranwala; LA-36 Jammu & others-3 Sialkot; LA-37 Jammu & others-4 Narowal; LA-38 Jammu & others-5 Gujrat; LA-39 Jammu & others-6 Rawalpindi-Attock; LA-40 Kashmir Valley-1 Sindh; LA-41 Kashmir Valley-2 Lahore; LA-42 Kashmir Valley-3 Jhelum-Rahimyar Khan; LA-43 Kashmir Valley-4 Rawalpindi; LA-44 Kashmir Valley-5 Islamabad-Murree; and LA-45 Kashmir Valley-6 KP.

Meanwhile, an average of 86,972 voters per seat will cast their ballots for each of the 33 seats inside AJK. There are a total of 2,870,090 registered voters. The Mirpur district has four seats; Bhimber district has three seats; Kotli district six seats; Bagh district three seats; Poonch district five seats; Sudhnoti district two seats and Neelum district two seats.

If there were a 50 percent voters’ turnout, an average of 44,000 ballots would be cast. Given the participation of all the major political parties of Pakistan in the electoral competition with full force like they did in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), the margin of victory for the winners may not be very large. The political forces have a say of varying degrees in all the constituencies.

Like the GB elections a few months back, the three key political parties are poised to utilize all their resources to come out with an impressive showing to prove that they have popular support even in AJK.

As the independents had played a dominant role in enabling the PTI to form a government in GB, it is likely this group of winners could have a good chance even in AJK. They will become more important if no party is able to secure a simple majority to form the government.

According to the AJK Election Commission (AJKEC), as many as 301,400 voters will exercise their right of franchise in Mirpur district; 287,536 will cast their votes in Bhimber district; 540,646 voters will cast their ballots in Kotli district and 286,864 will exercise their right of vote in Bagh district.

The Poonch district has 388,727 voters; the Sudhnoti district has 206,124 voters; and Neelum district has 123,190 voters. The 45 directly elected members of the AJKLA will choose eight candidates for special seats and consequently, the legislative assembly will comprise a total of 53 lawmakers. A large number of former AJK ministers are in the electoral arena once again. Ex-prime ministers and former presidents are also in the run.

There are some keenly watched constituencies where key leaders are testing their luck. Incumbent Prime Minister Raja Farooq Haider, belonging to the PML-N, is eying two seats from Muzaffarabad. He is challenged by the candidates of the PTI, PPP, Muslim Conference (MC) of Sardar Attique, Jamaat-e-Islami and others.

PTI’s Sardar Tanveer Ilyas is vying for a Bagh seat and is facing journalist turned politician Mushtaq Minhas of the PML-N, apart from the nominees of the PPP, Jamaat-e-Islami, MC and others.

Former Prime Minister Barrister Sultan Mahmood, who is the president of the AJK chapter of PTI, is pitched against his traditional rival of the PML-N among others for a Mirpur seat. Another former Prime Minister Sardar Attique is fighting for the Dheerkot seat and is being challenged by the representatives of the PML-N, PTI, PPP, Jamaat-e-Islami and others.

Yet another ex-Prime Minister Sardar Yaqoob of the PPP is contesting for two Sundhnoti seats and is facing candidates of all the other leading political parties. Former AJKLA Speaker Shah Ghulam Qadir is vying for a Neelum seat while Dr Najib Taqi, a close relative of senior PML-N leader Khurram Dastigir, is competing for another Sundhnoti seat. PPP AJK chapter President Latif Akbar is testing his luck from a Muzaffarabad constituency. Opposition leader in the AJKLA, Chaudhry Yasin, is also contesting two Kotli seats.

After withdrawals, a total of 701 candidates remain in the run for 45 general seats, including 579 candidates for 33 constituencies within AJK and 122 for 12 refugee constituencies in Pakistan.

In six constituencies reserved for refugees from Jammu residing in different areas of Pakistan, 86 out of 94 candidates who filed nomination papers were declared correct but 72 are now left in the race. For the remaining six seats allocated to refugees from the Kashmir Valley, 78 nomination papers were filed, 74 were found in order and 50 candidates are finally in the running.