The scent of peace

Former foreign minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri’s foray into Shiv Sena’s stronghold of Mumbai, armed with copies of ‘Neither a Hawk nor a Dove’ and accompanied by his host Sudheendra Kulkarni – who had black paint thrown all over his face by Sena’s goons – caused quite a stir. Yet, few could have anticipated that Kasuri’s affirmation about Narendra Modi eventually engaging with Pakistan would stand vindicated so soon.

That engagement is a done deal now, with many scratching their heads, trying to figure out what changed Modi’s game plan so dramatically within a short span of time. In Kasuri’s words, the change came about due to various factors. In terms of importance, though, the electoral setback in Bihar stands above others.

Indeed, Bihar was a watershed. It became Modi’s mission impossible. He played high and he lost. Modi addressed rally after rally, trying the fading Modi magic, promising development but ended up reaping a stinging defeat in the state election. Even the warning that the BJP’s defeat would lead to celebrations in Pakistan failed to move the voters. Suddenly, the prospect of Modi leading the BJP to a re-election victory in 2019 dimmed substantially.

Credit goes to Nawaz Sharif for persevering and to Modi for changing tack on Hindutva-laced Pakistan bashing. The RSS can rue the turn of events but Modi has proved that he is a politician who places success over ideology. If hate speech about India’s minorities hurts the BJP’s electoral prospects, then it can be modified. If reaching out to Pakistan is going to add to his profile as a statesman, so be it. A new Modi image is not on the drawing board any more. It has been launched.

Credit should also be given to India’s leaders across the board because they were not held back by dogmatic or tactical rigidity. As soon as the Soviet Union collapsed, they quietly realigned with the United States. The Indians were sceptical of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, yet tried to get its membership or observer status. They reached out to China showing respect for the world’s second largest economy.

Repeated attacks on minorities in the name of the holy cow did not attract favourable feedback within and outside India. Pakistan-bashing proved to be another policy with diminishing returns. Telling the Indians that only the BJP had the solution to problems of underdevelopment and poverty received a thrashing first in Delhi and then Bihar.

Another plan to impose the BJP on the Kashmiris, and heightening tensions across the LoC and the working boundary provoked strong reactions. So the change of tactic by serving Hindutva Lite is very much a reaffirmation of the belief that interests, not policies, are permanent.

India is entitled to take a U-turn in its stance towards Pakistan demanding the elimination of terror first and talking later. But we too are entitled to raise questions about the BJP’s sincerity for resolving bilateral disputes through the Comprehensive Dialogue. A low key approach to the coming meeting of the two foreign secretaries would be more realistic than a misplaced expectation of results.

Pakistan may have been unduly responsive to Modi’s change of tactics, caused by his own needs rather than by a genuine desire to improve ties with Pakistan.

In any case, the upbeat mood in Islamabad was followed by a realisation that the deal proposed by India was not that appealing. India’s expectations from a resumed dialogue became clearer from the joint statement. New Delhi desires transit trade in Indian goods via the land route to Afghanistan and beyond. The dialogue will move forward as Pakistan helps in the trial of those accused of involvement in Mumbai terror attack of 2008. What India is prepared to offer is unclear.

Pakistani diplomats with long experience of dealing with India are not moved. Is India trading nothing for concrete actions by Pakistan? Does India still believe that a mere resumption of dialogue would make Pakistan content? India may be making only cosmetic changes in its modus operandi towards Pakistan.

More seriously, some think that India’s designs with regard to Pakistan remain unchanged but the BJP has dropped for now an outright hostile posture. The Indians have been told by common friends that their plan to get a permanent seat in the UN Security Council will remain challenged as long as it has turbulent relations with its neighbours.

Viewed from Pakistan, India will need to move on other issues falling in the ambit of the comprehensive dialogue. The Pak-India diplomatic tussle has to come out of its zero sum mode. If the Modi team is making a virtue of difficulties at home to score points through statesmanship without a give and take approach, the applecart of a comprehensive dialogue will not go far.

Pakistan can play along the idea of a resumed dialogue, re-baptised by India as comprehensive rather than composite. A realistic approach would dictate that Pakistan pursues a negotiating strategy of something for something and nothing for nothing. The Indian tendency of treating a cricket series or a resumed dialogue as favours to Pakistan should be given the treatment it deserves.

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com