Beyond the fear factor

It was a landslide for the MQM in the recent local bodies polls in Karachi. A few months back, the party had won in a similar fashion the by-election for a National Assembly constituency in Karachi. Why are the MQM’s popularity and credentials such a hard nut to crack despite the party having been subjected to crackdown by the authorities off and on for allegedly masterminding criminal activities?

There are four possible explanations. One explanation sees the MQM’s electoral exploits as an outcome of fear and intimidation. The MQM, so goes the allegation, is involved in crime ranging from extortion to kidnapping for ransom and murder, and uses its clout to bully the electorate into voting for its candidates. The people have to choose between voting for the MQM or getting into trouble. The PTI and its supporters, in particular, have renewed this charge from time to time. They have contended that the MQM would be cut down to size if the electorate in Karachi were allowed to exercise its right to vote fearlessly.

The crime-politics nexus runs through Pakistani politics and the MQM is no exception. Karachi’s status of being the nation’s commercial and financial capital with an enormous underground economy provides a strong incentive for maintaining such a nexus. It is also indisputable that a party that remains in power over a long period, as the MQM has done in the past, is in a position to manipulate the electoral outcome.

However, looking upon the MQM’s electoral performance as wholly or principally an outcome of the fear factor is not fair. Such a view would have made sense if the MQM had won only when it was in power or at least had the backing of the establishment.

The MQM has in the past rubbed shoulders with the establishment and has been a recipient of its favours and patronage; it has also been alleged that the party was fathered by the dictatorial regime of Gen Zia. But on more than one occasion, the party has won – and decisively so – even when it was under a cloud. Today, the MQM bears the brunt of the Karachi operation and is on the wrong side of the establishment. Its top leadership is facing charges ranging from money laundering to murder. Winning comprehensively in such circumstances disputes the intimidation theory.

The second view attributes the MQM’s repeated electoral victories to the party’s ‘exceptional’ performance whenever it was in power either in its own right (local government) or as a coalition partner (federal and provincial governments). A counter-view holds that, with the exception of the period (2005-2009) when Mustafa Kamal headed the Karachi local government, the party does not have much to its credit as far as governance is concerned.

Be that as it may, judging the MQM’s popularity on the touchstone of performance only would be to miss the mark. While performance may in some measure account for the party’s immense popularity, the main reason lies elsewhere.

The reason for the party’s popularity lies in its very genesis, which ironically enough is at the same time the party’s weakness. The party was set up to champion the rights of the Urdu-speaking population of urban Sindh –the Mohajirs as they are commonly called. The MQM was the first, and remains to date the only, political party to have raised a voice for the Mohajir community exclusively.

Before the rise of the MQM, there were parties which worked essentially for other minority ethnic groups, such as Sindhis, Pakhtuns and the Baloch – not to forget the Awami League, which was set up to take up the cause of the majority Bengalis before the 1971 break-up of Pakistan.

The MQM’s essentially Mohajir credentials have enabled the party to maintain its electoral edge over its rivals in urban Sindh. The party’s popularity is rooted in the perception that if the Mohajirs are to have any voice in matters political or economic, the only effective vehicle available to them is the MQM.

The party is regarded as synonymous with the community it stands for and any threat to the party is interpreted as a threat to the people. No matter which picture of the MQM the media or the party’s critics may present, the electorate regards it as its best bet. A similar perception exists in rural Sindh about the PPP and in a similar fashion accounts for its popularity.

As long as this perception persists, the MQM will continue to call the shots in Karachi and other parts of urban Sindh, no matter whether it is on the wrong or right side of the establishment. On the other hand, the MQM’s main challengers in Karachi, which include religious parties – notably the Jamaat-e-Islami – and now the PTI, have failed to establish themselves as a credible alternative to the MQM. Even the JI-PTI alliance for the recent LB polls did not have the desired effect. The alliance turned out to be a case of zero plus zero equals zero.

At the same time, the perception that the MQM is the representative of the Mohajirs has worked to the party’s disadvantage in that it has held the party back from expanding its support base to other areas of the country. The MQM largely remains an ethnic outfit – an exponent of identity politics.

Since 1997, when the party changed its name from the Mohajir Qaumi Movement to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, it has been keen to cast away its ethnic character and transform itself into a party with a nationwide appeal. In particular, it has sought – albeit with little success – to get its feet under the table in the Punjab province. The party’s manifesto underlines the need to protect the rights of the neglected segments of society, not merely of the Mohajirs. But it is doubtful whether the MQM will ever become a nationwide party. If it does, it may be at the expense of its popularity in urban Sindh.

Ethnic politics, though exceedingly important in the case of the MQM, is not enough for the party to maintain the electorate’s loyalty. The frenzy generated by identity politics needs to be supplemented with a cool, calculated analysis of the political situation backed by strong party organisation at the grassroot levels, which creates a strong link between the party and the people. Such organisation the PPP had all over the country until recently. Such organisation the PML-N has in Punjab and the MQM has in urban Sindh.

The writer is a graduate from a western European university.

Email: hussainhzaidi@gmail.com