Statistical mirage

LAHORE: Statistics sometimes do not give the true picture of the economy as they are based on the corresponding period of the previous year.

We need statistics that reveal the impact on the lives of ordinary citizens over periods of five, ten, fifteen and twenty years. Production of each product and crop depicts the average share of the population during this period.

Statistics should show whether the share has increased or declined during this period. This will reveal the well being of average population over each period. Yearly industrial growth for instance does not tell the true story as it is calculated on the basis of the growth during the corresponding period of the previous year.

Car production nosedived during the peak Covid-19 months of last year and any production during those months would be over 100 percent. For national statistics, we must add a regular column of the peak production of any product or commodity in the history of the country and then the latest production figures along with the production in the previous year. This will give an insight to the planners about the progress a crop or an industry has achieved over years.

Car production in 2007-08 stood at 275,000 units and then declined to around 150,000 units in the next four years. It started increasing in 2014-15 and reached 285,000 units in 2017-18. The real increase in those 10 years was only 10,000 new cars, but since the statistics compare the growth with previous years the growth in the car industry looked phenomenal.

The auto industry again went in decline in the next two years and is now on the rise. It is still far away from its peak of 285,000 units achieved in 2017-18, but statistics show only the current growth to show that we are on road to progress.

We should have the peak production as a reference every time the statistics are released to be able to judge the progress we have attained over the peak. Similarly, cotton production is at its lowest ever in last two decades. It has in fact been on decline for the last three years.

The production right now is only one-third of the peak production we achieved in the late 90s. However, if the production rises next year (it should from the decline) in the past few years. We would be celebrating if cotton production rebounds from the current level by 20 percent next year.

But, it would still be less than half the production we obtained in the past. Government performance should not be judged on statistics without reference to the peak production of each item.

If peak production of each item is made the reference, then each government would make efforts to surpass that target, which would be the real progress and growth. When we fail to surpass the peak production target (even if we achieve the peak); we in fact are depicting a negative growth of 2.4 percent, which is our yearly population growth.

In 2007-8 when our population was around 197 million we produced 275,000 cars and now when our population is 220 million, we are likely to produce 200,000 cars (maximum). Is it progress? Inflation is a villain that promotes poverty. Every government tries to keep inflation as low as possible.

But there has never been a year when we encountered negative inflation. It continues increasing at either low or high percentages. Lower inflation after a high number means that the prices that peaked at high inflation, would continue to increase but at lower pace.

We should have a comparative table of the prices of each essential item and the durables in each of the last two decades along with the prevailing prices to get a glimpse of the impact on the lives of the people.

These prices would act as a benchmark for the ruling party that would make efforts to at least keep the prices stable in line with the average incomes of the families. In developed economies, at least the prices of food are kept stable while house rent and other variables in monthly expenses continue to rise.

Governments show rosy statistics just to portray that they are working for the welfare of the people. The population in general judges the performance of each government on the basis of the change (positive or negative) it brought in their lives.