How strong is Kaptan?

Prime Minister Imran Khan has averted the crisis within his own party in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with the policy of carrot and stick but, when it comes to his relationship with his three key allies, PML(Q), MQM (Pakistan) and GDA, it is no more than a ceasefire and the ball is in his court.

Only the PM knows which 'mafia' he has referred to Is working against his government in Punjab and KP, as he did not name anyone; it apparently looked more of a myth than realityas the real issue which Imran is not ready to accept is his wrong selection both in KP and Punjab. However, the issue of Balochistan and the Baloch National Party, is nearly over.

What emerged on Monday, after the federal cabinet meeting, was a sign of PM's weakness, as within 24 hours after he gave his consent to the Chief Minister, Sindh, Syed Murad Ali Shah, in the presence of Governor Sindh, Imran Ismail, for the transfer of IGP, Sindh, Kaleem Imam, the 'Kaptan' took the biggest 'U-turn' and withdrew his earlier decision after one of his allies, GDA, put its foot down to oppose IGP's successor, Mushtaq Mehar. Although, its a matter between the two governments, the GDA's ministers in the federal cabinet told the PM that they are also stakeholders in the case. Earlier, during his visit to Karachi, the PM met Pir Pagaro and before leaving for Islamabad, discussed the issue with Governor Ismail and both agreed to the PPP government's candidate for the new IGP and Mushtaq Mehar emerged as a consensus candidate. Desiring their pound of flesh, the GDA wants someone who could give a tough time to the PPP led government in Sindh and they shot down what the prime minister had agreed to.

The issues with the MQM (Pakistan) is also far from over as one of the party leaders described the progress as 'zero'. Neither any meeting of the PM with MQM was scheduled nor any request was made during the former's visit to Karachi. "There is zero progress as far as our demands were concerned since the high powered delegation led by Federal Minister, Asad Umer visited our Bahadurabad central office and gave firm assurances," one of party central leaders told me on condition of anonymity. "We are going nowhere nor the talks are heading anywhere," he added. The MQM key demands includes government support on revisiting census in Karachi, which the MQM has also challenged in the Sindh High Court, opening of Hyderabad University, release of developments funds and PTI and federal government political support for reopening of its sector and unit offices, which apparently has once again been 'vetoed' by the Establishment. As far the issue of its 'missing persons' is concerned the party claims that some 150 workers remain missing and only 35 have returned home.

In the case of MQM's demands, the Prime Minister is also facing some resistance and reservations from his own party in Karachi, which has 14 NA seats. Sources said, the PTI-Karachi has set its eyes on the prized post of 'Karachi Mayor' and they have advised the premier to grab the one-time opportunity, take credit and speed up the development projects, instead of giving funds to Mayor.

Soon after his return from Davos, the Prime Minister had decided to address the crisis brewing within his own party in Punjab and KP as well as with the allies. What was surprising was that during a visit to Lahore he met the PTI MNAs and MPAs to address, 'Buzdar crisis,' but clearly avoided meeting with the Chaudhries of Gujrat. While he put his weight behind Buzdar, and rejected the reservations from the party cadre he created a troika comprising CM, Chief Secretary, and IGP, Punjab to work as a team. Thus, giving a clear message that he would brook any pressure to replace him, while also reportedly warning the CM to establish his writ on governance. As a display of the policy of 'carrot and stick,' he also asked the three to accommodate the annoyed MPAs and approved their development funds.

As contrast to 'giving carrots' in Punjab, the Prime Minister took up the stick in the KP and sacked three prominent ministers including two of his most trusted, Atif Khan and Shiram Taraki, passing a strong message to the group of MPAs annoyed with CM Mahmood Khan.

In the post-2018 elections, Prime Minister had pulled a surprise for many including the former chief minister, and one of the strongest PTI leaders in KP, Pervez Khattak, by bringing him in the center and nominating a weak Mahmood Khan for the driving seat in the KP. The former was made Minister of Defence, a ministry considered largely as powerless.

However, he still considers Pervez Khattak as his confidant and the one capable of resolving the political crisis with ease, both within the party and the opposition as well. What transpired in the last week has brought the political temperature down somewhat but the political upheavals continue.

Imran Khan in many ways gave the message loud and clear that ' there can be only one 'Kaptan' in the team (unlike Pakistan cricket team) and no one other than the PTI's Kaptan will call the shots. But, that does not mean that he is happy with the performance of Punjab CM, Usman Buzdar or that of KP's Mahmood Khan. But what he was more put off was with the reports that most of the stories 'leaked' to the media on the governance issues, were from sources within the party and the government, building the perception that his grip on power is slipping, an impression the 'Kaptan' is always averse to since his days in cricket. This is what he also termed as conspiracy against his government.

While the opposition parties are on the back foot since the 'extension' vote and not in the mood to throw a challenge to the government, the Prime Minister continues to face a serious crisis of 'governance,' which is also being seen as a matter of concern in the rank and file of those who matter. Since the mysterious silence of Sharifs and Asif Zardari, the government is facing mounting criticism for not being able to fix the severe crisis of governance and the stormy relationship with its allies.

With 'governance' issues dogging the government, his relationship with the Establishment continues to be on a better turf as compared to the two previous governments. Unlike in the past where the governments often grappled with problems hurled their way by the opposition or with the establishment, it is different in the case of Imran Khan. There are more problems 'within' than the challenges from the outside. One of the prime reasons for that has been the 'selection' of not putting the right people in the right place.

The circles close to Establishment reveal that the PTI government is most suitable for them as unlike in the case of late Benazir Bhutto, Asif Ali Zardari or Nawaz Sharif, they don't have 'issues' with IK, on international, internal or on security fronts. They also seem satisfied with the performance of the new economic team like Finance Minister, Governor State Bank and Chairman FBR. They also do not face any 'unnecessary interference' on 'security issues either.' However, the 'governance issues,' of Punjab and the KP beside the 'mishandling' of these problems rankles them as well. Besides, while the Prime Minister may have emerged stronger after settling the issues in Punjab, KP, and Baluchistan, but the problems in Sindh continue to persist.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO