Thanksgiving visit

In a surprise trip to Afghanistan, veiled behind a thick cover of security, President Donald Trump arrived at the Bagram Air Base on Thursday and indicated that the US was now willing to resume talks with the Taliban. Trump who had also brought a thanksgiving dinner for the US forces stationed in Afghanistan made his unexpected announcement just three months after he had called off talks with the militant group following the death of a US soldier in a bomb attack which killed 11. A recent swap of prisoners may have helped change his mind. But it is more likely that Washington can see no other way out with attempts at mediation by China, Russia and other nations not producing any distinct signs of progress.

The US is also in a hurry to obtain results, given that there are only days left before the process begins for the next presidential election and a pullout of US soldiers from Afghanistan would suit the Trump administration. Trump told US troops that some 8,000 out of the 12-13000 personnel post in Afghanistan would be withdrawn, and emphasized that the Taliban were extremely eager to enter into talks. The US military commander in Afghanistan stated however that no numbers of timeframe had been determined. It is also somewhat surprising to learn that the Taliban who currently hold the upper hand in terms of territorial gains in Afghanistan should be especially desirous of beginning a new round of talks, though they have stated on multiple occasions that a US withdrawal from the region is essential to peace.

The situation essentially reflects the manner in which the Trump administration works. President Trump was accompanied on his 13-hour long trip to Afghanistan by a team of senior advisers and officials. There is however no certainty that his latest proposals had been discussed in detail within his own government and with Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Special Envoy to Afghanistan, who spearheaded the last round of talks. It is also not clear if Pakistan is to have a role in this process, should it begin. In the past, for over a year till earlier in 2019, Islamabad had helped mediate the US-Taliban talks in an attempt to find a settlement. This settlement is of crucial to stability in the region. There can be no doubt that Trump will want to demonstrate his administration’s success in attaining this. How well his method works cannot be anticipated. A number of logistical problems, chiefly the Taliban’s refusal to include the Afghan government in talks, had held back the process in the past. We will need to see how matters such as this are resolved and what steps Washington and Kabul take next.