Temperature and crop yields

According to Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2018-19, the mean annual temperature in the country has gone up, with Sindh and Balochistan recording a greater increase than other provinces and regions. The increase in temperature is higher in the winter than in the summer, with the maximum being recorded in December and February.

It merits a mention that during the last century, the average temperature across Pakistan has increased by 0.6 degree Celsius, which is in conformity with the increase of average global temperature. However, the future climate change projections show that the average rise in temperature by the end of the century will be around one degree Celsius higher than the global one, causing more warming in the northern regions than the southern ones. The higher temperature will increase the frequency of floods, droughts, heatwaves, and cyclonic activity, steady regression of most glaciers except a small minority in the Karakorum Range that supply the bulk of the country’s water supply, and changes in the rainfall patterns. Also, the report reveals an increase in annual precipitation in most parts of the country with September and June recording the most of it. The survey fears a reduction in cereal crop yields due to climate change in the days ahead. The southeastern side of the country is more vulnerable to heat day stress during flowering and ripening stages of wheat. This vulnerability is increasing both spatially and temporally to all the major wheat-producing zones, from lower Sindh to the Potohar region, until the end of the 21st century. In the absence of a change in management practices and technology, an overall reduction will be registered for all cereal crop yields.

Khan Faraz

Peshawar