By-polls results raise alarm bells for Buzdar govt

LAHORE: The by-poll results in Punjab have raised alarm bells for the ruling coalition which can’t afford even a slight revolt in its cadres while keeping in view the current number game in Punjab Assembly.

PTI suffers big electoral upset in Punjab

Any revolt in ranks of the Punjab coalition could put the government of Chief Minister Sardar Usman Buzdar literally on ventilator in case any no-confidence vote is sought and survival of his government now lies purely on the PML-Q, the party with only 10 seats in the House of 371.

The PML-Q, despite having a very marginal representation in the House, has attained the most significant position in Punjab Assembly and it holds the key to the future of present PTI government which has suffered a setback in the by-polls held on October 14.

The PTI, a party which had a strength of 176 MPAs in PA before the October 14 by-polls, could win only three more seats in form of PP-201, Sahiwal, PP-261, Rahimyar Khan and PP-272, Dera Ghazi Khan whereas it lost others at the hands of the PML-N or independents, including those which it won in July 25 general elections, including PP-3, PP-27, PP-222 and PP-292.

In order to attain the required strength of 186 to form government in Punjab, PTI, with 179 seats now has to rely mainly on the PML-Q which has 10 seats followed by one of Rah-e-Haq Party and two independents like Ahmed Ali Aulakh and Jugnoo Mohsin, who haven’t joined any party.

Two independent MPAs, including Bilal Warraich and Awais Khan have won from TT Singh and Multan respectively while defeating PTI candidates and Tehreek-e-Insaf needs their support too to save itself to counter any critical situation.

The PML-N, a party which had 162 MPAs in the House before the October 14 by-elections, had won six more seats and if one seat of Khawaja Saad Rafique, who will now take oath as MNA, is excluded, the individual strength of the PML-N stands at 167. In this way, a party with 168 votes and additional support of PPP with seven MPAs reach a figure of 175. In case the PML-N, whose leadership has good relationship with independent MPAs like Ahmed Ali Aulakh and Jugnoo Mohsin as well as Awais Khan of Multan, who has won with the backing of Nawaz League and defeated the brother of Qasim Noon, the PML-N strength will reach 178, which means it just needs a support of eight more MPAs. Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, who has been elected as independent candidate and he is yet to take oath and both PTI as well as PML-N needs his support now. Rah-e-Haq Party MPA, Muawya Azam Tariq, who is son of renowned religious figure late Azam Tariq, also has good relationship with the PML-N leadership is wooed, with his support and the support of Ch Nisar, the PML-N will reach the figure of 180. Nevertheless, the PML-Q has a pivotal role at the moment in Punjab Assembly and following the by-poll results, speculations are also on the rise in the PTI circles over a possible ‘greater role’ for Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi. Some of the ruling party members even believe that a Balochistan Assembly like in House change, when its Speaker Qudoos Bazinjo became the CM couldn’t be ruled out but most of the members think that the government would complete its term and Usman Buzdar will continue to serve as CM as pledged by Imran.

Imran Khan, the Prime Minister in a press conference in Lahore last week had made it clear that there would be no change in Punjab Assembly and Buzdar would continue to serve as the CM as long as PTI is in power.

In every which way, PTI has a testing time in Punjab and in order to protect its government, it has to go extra mile to keep its allies happy. Cabinet expansion in next few days can’t be ruled out, believe some of the leaders.