Reasons for narrow win margin for Begum Kulsoom

ISLAMABAD: Go slow strategy, adopted for polling, coupled with kidnapping of some key campaigners of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) identified and publicized by it, which was meant to whittle down Begum Kulsoom’s victory margin, conspicuously figured in a host of reasons behind low voter turnout in NA-120 Lahore by-election and her dwindled lead.

However, in the end all the tactics, pursued by different players, to cut down her win tally, largely fell flat as she relished a respectable edge though less than that of the 2013 general elections when deposed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had carried the day.

First it was the former premier, who broke the news in London that some PML-N men had been made to disappear. Later, Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah had confirmed it and named those abducted. Subsequently, Maryam, who spearheaded the election campaign for her ailing mother, gave details about the kidnappings in her victory speech.

There is no explanation from any quarter as to who took away these top activists of the PML-N. Rana Sanaullah pledged to take their cases to a logical conclusion. But neither he nor Maryam named the kidnappers, and hinted at the involvement of hidden hands behind the episodes.

Apart from the strong-arm ploys used against the PML-N, its several voters were also responsible for the lesser lead and relatively poor turnout. They came out of their houses to approach the polling stations very late in the day. When they reached there, they saw long queues and were unable to get into the stations to cast their vote before the closing time. Resultantly, they have to go back.

Apparently, lack of experience of the PML-N’s election paraphernalia to contest this crucial election and its ignorance of the new methods being experimented to damage it went to its disadvantage. The party, faced with heavy odds, was required to bring out its voters early in the day to throng the polling stations so that they did not have to go back without exercising their right because of the closing time for polling. The PML-N election managers were unable to foresee the tough situation to be created for them.

The new method employed this time was to slow down the polling by putting in unnecessary checks and obstacles. For example, the election law doesn’t allow voters’ verification by security staff guarding the entry gates of polling stations but they did it. Such authentication can be legally done by the polling personnel and agents of the contesting candidates, sitting close to the ballot boxes.

Another element of the new technique was to illegally send back voters holding the slips, containing vote numbers in the electoral rolls, of a particular political party, issued by its camps, on the fallacious ground that their names do not appear in the voters’ lists. However, when the same voters brought the slips from another political party from its camps set up outside the polling stations after a few minutes, they were allowed to cast their ballots at the same stations.

The most negative scheme, used in the by-election, was not to let several voters to go inside the polling stations according to the capacity of these places, saying that there was no space inside. If only a very small number of voters are permitted to get into the stations, the whole process will tremendously slow down, forcing many to go without casting their ballots.

Generally, before the closing time for polling all the voters standing in the queue are permitted to come inside the polling station and then its doors are closed for others coming after that. In the instant case, multitudes of voters were not allowed to get into the stations even before the polling time reached.

Traditionally, by-elections experience low turnouts. While the PML-N complained of severe difficulties being confronted by its voters, there was all milk and honey for its main rival, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Its Secretary General Jehangir Tareen declared hours before the polling ended that the by-poll was most transparent, fair and free. This reflected the immense satisfaction of his party as a whole.

But despite having a highly comforting and facilitating environment, Dr Yasmin Rashid could not score the victory and clinched less votes than what she had bagged in 2013. One assessment is that she pocketed all the votes the PTI has in this constituency due to the extremely enabling atmosphere, and the low turnout, over 39pc, did not hurt her badly.

Whatever the reason, it is worrying for the PML-N that Begum Kulsoom could not match her tally with that of Nawaz Sharif of 2013. Last time he had got 91,683 votes compared to his rival’s 52,354 ballots. Now, his spouse bagged 61,745 votes compared to her opponent’s 47,099.

The outcome of the by-poll exploded certain myths, created by different political players. PTI Chairman Imran Khan had dubbed the by-election as a referendum over the question whether the voters stand with the judiciary or the “plunderers of national wealth”. “People should defeat the PML-N candidate to show that they are with the judiciary which forced the most powerful man to stand in the dock for accountability,” he said. It was unfortunate to bring in the judiciary in the electoral contest.

On the other hand, the PML-N presented the by-election as a proof for the sanctity of vote and a no-confidence in the court judgment, disqualifying Nawaz Sharif as the prime minister on July 28.

The PTI chief’s highly bloated perception of his popularity stood flattened as he was still far away from winning the elections. Before the by-poll, he exuded extraordinary confidence as he always did prior to such electoral exercises.

Another fact proved by the by-election result is that the malicious campaign against the former premier going on since long and the tactics used in the by-election failed to defeat the PML-N cardholder.

Since in the one-man one-vote voting system the first-past-the-post is the winner, there is not much for the PTI to rejoice because its nominee was routed. The only solace, if it can be so called, for it is that the defeat margin was narrowed down. However, regardless of the final result and the complaints the two sides have now or before, both fought well. Democracy was the real victor.