Heading for multiparty system

Pakistan's mainstream political parties are ready for elections and have already launched early election campaigns for 2018. Some are predicting a hung Parliament, with tripartite contest between Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), but the role of some emerging alliances in the changing political scenario would be interesting.

Since 1970 elections, there has not been a single party which had swept polls alike in all four provinces. It had been a divided mandate. If the PPP managed Punjab and Sindh in 1970, the then Awami League (AL) had clear majority, but all from the then West Pakistan. Awami National Party (ANP) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) captured Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

Now, whoever wins Punjab wins Pakistan. The PML-N, in the post-1988 period, is getting major support from Punjab while never got clear a majority in other provinces. This is something that has kept political imbalance.

After 2013 election, the PTI joined the bandwagon and, on popularity graph, it is now a tripartite system, with small share from smaller parties.

Punjab is a key, but in the changing political scenario, a split mandate in Punjab would make the system multiparty.

Very interesting political scenario could emerge if on one hand, major religious parties revive their alliance, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). And, on the other hand, the MQM factions reunite in urban Sindh. Along with Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, the alliance this time would also get the active support of Jamaatud Dawa from the platform of Milli Muslim League. If materialised, this new-look MMA could pose a challenge to the PTI and the PML in KP and can also pose challenge to mainstream parties in Balochistan.

However, the JUI and JI have their own problems of distrust. But, if the JI finally decides to break an alliance with PTI and pull itself out from the KP government, the revival of old MMA was possible, which can pose a serious challenge to Imran Khan's PTI in KP. In that case, Imran Khan would form an alliance with Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) of Dr Tahirul Qadri, as he hopes it would benefit him in Punjab.

In the urban Sindh, MQM-Pakistan, Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP) and MQM-Haqiqi come close and all factions of MQM, including MQM-London, reject the census results. Presence of Dr Farooq Sattar, Afaq Ahmad and Anis Advocate in a recent seminar at Karachi Press Club, days after they agreed on an APC, raise hope for possible understanding before the next elections.

This will lead the battle for Punjab wide open for the PML-N, PTI and PPP, which in the last few weeks looked quite active in the big province particularly in southern Punjab. How much Bilawal Bhutto's rallies and public meetings would translate into its 'vote bank' would be interesting to watch.

In addition to PTI-JI conflict in KP over the Khyber Bank affair, Imran Khan's fresh row with former president, Asif Ali Zardari, and his constant attack deminish the chances of any possible talks between PTI and PPP.

Mr Zardari, who has now been cleared from all cases and PPP, now asking its critics to accept him as 'Mr Clean,' got first sharp reaction from Imran Khan, who not only rejected his acquittal from NAB court, but also termed it 'Muk Muka verdict.'

From the past tag of 'Mr Ten Percent,' Mr Zardari is now expecting his critics to accept him as 'Mr Clean’. Therefore, it is quite clear that Imran is in no mood of going after any alliance with the PPP particularly when former president, has announced that after remaining silent for four years, he would do full politics in election year.

How far Imran's strategy to go all out and without any alliance would benefit others? He intends to go solo, and still confident of clean sweep in KP and also in Punjab, something which even a hardcore PTI supporter not sure about.

While the PPP has also taken hard line against the PML-N and has now decided to take on Imran Khan, Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto have decided how to share power within the PPP till the elections.

Bilawal would lead rallies and public meetings as he is doing, Zardari would rarely appear in public meeting and would explore possibilities of understanding, alliances or seat adjustments with different parties.

After the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif by the Supreme Court followed by his brief reaction and harsh tone gave rise to rumours and speculations about political uncertainty and possible confrontation, which could derail the whole system. PML-N itself sees no such head on, either with judiciary or any other institution, but demand justice for Sharif.

During a brief visit to Lahore, the writer found mixed reaction about the support for PML-N and the PTI, but for different reasons even the supporters of PTI, gave an edge to PML-N, Mrs Kulsoom Nawaz in NA-120. Interesting would be the margin of victory and defeat in this election particularly for PML(N).

Imran has already warned the voters that 'vote for PML' would mean 'vote for corruption’, while the PML-N leaders termed it 'conceding defeat before elections.'

Therefore, NA-120 would be a launching pad for all parties before the next elections and Imran's focal point in the campaign would be, 'vote for PML' mean 'vote for corruption,' while PML (N) focal point would ' injustice to Nawaz,' not acceptable.  

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO