It was a dream start for Nawaz Sharif in 2013-election, as his party, Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), swept polls in Punjab, enabling him to become the prime minister for the third time. History was created when for the first time in 70 years, the nation witnessed smooth transfer of power.
What went wrong between 2013 and 2017, which not only led to the fall of PM Nawaz Sharif for the record third time, when he could not complete his term, but also brought an end to his 32 years of parliamentary politics. The post-disqualification is a new political journey for Sharif, in which he could learn from his mistakes and still make his party strong.
Sharif's ouster from politics came as a result of 5-0 SC judgment. He said he was innocent and fell victim. He can only prove others wrong if he gets his party elected to power in 2018, an election through people's joint investigation team (JIT). There is no other way left for him as legal experts are not very confident about the outcome of any review petition.
It was his longest term, but still one year short of the constitutional term. And now, as a makeshift arrangement, it would be completed by two PMs, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi for 45 days, and then by his brother Shahbaz Sharif, who will have to win by-election from NA-120 first to become eligible for the PM’s slot. This is PML-N plan, as of today.
Nawaz Sharif's four-year term revolved around few controversies, some generated as a result of his own decisions, while others struck as a consequence of his decisions. (1) Trial of former army chief, General (retd) Pervez Musharraf, (2) Civil-military relationship, (3) Karachi operation, which, in the later stage, led to the break-up of his relationship with both the MQM and the PPP, (4) Imran Khan dharna and his aggressive politics, (5) relationship with India.
Metro Bus and Motorway remains hallmark of his term as well, like during his previous two terms, beside number of energy projects, as he had promised zero load-shedding during his tenure.
Sharif started his third power journey well. He gave a reception to the outgoing president, Asif Ali Zardari, and despite PPP's reservation over elections, which Zardari had termed ‘ROs polls’, and disappointed with the PML-N politics over Memogate, the party leaders attended the reception and congratulated Sharif and the PML-N.
He took a historic decision in Balochistan, when despite PML-N’s majority, he allowed National Party's Dr Abdul Malik to form the government in an arrangement with the PML-N. Two-and-a-half years were given to the NP, and the second half tenure has been given to PML’s Sanaullah Zehri. No wonder if most of the nationalist parties stood with Sharif when he was ousted by the SC. The move was generally appreciated in the country, considering sensitivity of Balochistan.
Trouble started when Nawaz Sharif, against the advice of few party leaders, particularly former interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, decided to put Musharraf on trial for high treason for his Nov-3 action, the Emergency Plus. Perhaps, it was a decision in haste without sensing the mood within the military establishment. The move came at a time when General Raheel Sharif had just taken over as the army chief from General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani.
Reaction from the establishment came in different ways, as everyone witnessed during the brief trial and in the end, Sharif's government withdrew its original stance and the man was allowed to leave the country in a strange manner, leaving many questions unanswered.
In the same year (2013), the army had launched a major operation in North Waziristan, which for years had become a safe haven for local and global terror networks. For the first time, the establishment narrative about Taliban changed and the army went all-out through air and ground strikes.
The army asked the new prime minister to take the political ownership of the operation and pacify the voices of concern, coming from religious parties as well as from Imran Khan.
It was a major challenge for Sharif, who initially feared serious backlash from militants including Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Thus, he took a controversial decision when he surprised many by initiating a dialogue through a committee. The TTP also constituted a committee, but talks break up after Taliban refused to lay down arms and put some hard conditions.
In the process, Sharif also went to meet Imran Khan at Banigala. Imran Khan was a powerful voice against the operation, but after the meeting he softened his stance. Later on, it was the massacre of children at the Army Public School (APS) which completely changed Imran's stance and he supported the operation.
In the same year, he took another major decision about the Karachi operation, and took both the PPP and united MQM into confidence. Special powers were delegated to the rangers and an apex committee was asked to monitor the operation.
Unlike the past three operations in Karachi, it was decided that it would be across-the-board. Today, Sharif could claim the move as his success story. But, in the process, the undeclared policy of friendly opposition from the PPP was lost with the arrest of Dr Asim Hussain. The MQM was the worst-hit, as not only its strong alleged militant group was dismantled, but the party was also divided into three factions.
Former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, should blame himself for his failure in defusing the political tension with his archrival Imran Khan. Sharif twice missed the bus for resolving the crisis, created as a result of Imran's aggressive posture. First, when Imran demanded probe into alleged rigging in four constituencies. It was not such an issue to address from someone like Sharif with a comfortable majority in the assembly. He could have engaged him and without any probe could have gone for re-election. It would have not only defused the situation but also eliminated the chances of 126-day dharna or the incident like Model Town.
Luck again favoured Sharif when the PPP and other opposition parties stood with the Parliament and in a way rescued the PM from a no-win situation. Later, the judicial commission findings against a large-scale rigging also gave the PML-N an upper hand. He could have used the move to bring the mainstream parties closer and make major electoral reforms for making the parliament strong.
Therefore, on domestic front, Sharif created problems for himself and despite smooth sailing, created gulf with the opposition. The 2014 APS massacre also provided him with an opportunity to take all the parties along.
On foreign policy front, he perhaps went too fast in developing relationship with India without realising the basic point i.e. good relations with Pakistan negate the very basic politics of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His so-called gesture towards him and Pakistan, a surprise visit to Lahore etc., had not been for improving relationship, but just to show the world.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was the biggest achievement of Nawaz Sharif's government. But, it is also true that the initial work for CPEC was started during the PPP government. The PML-N government could rightly claim of taking the matter on a fast pace despite some controversy over deciding the route.
Panama leaks in April 2016 not only gave new political life to Imran Khan, who was down after big political loss in election rigging case, but also created serious problems for Sharif as his children's name also appeared for having offshore companies, along with over 400 others.
Like the way he mishandled 2014 dharna, Sharif once again misjudged the issue. He had the great opportunity in defusing the tension by engaging the parliament and other parties. He could have avoided the legal battle and could have avoided the situation by simply accepting the moral responsibility.
Politics is the game of opportunities, possibilities and timing. If you miss opportunities, there is left nothing for any politician but to regret. Wish our politicians understand some of the basics of politics.
The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.
Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO
