Rift in the Gulf

The Middle East was thrown into fresh turmoil  on Monday  after Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE cut off ties with Qatar, expelled its diplomats and gave its citizens two weeks to leave their countries. Egypt, Yemen, the Maldives and the pro-Saudi faction that controls the east of Libya quickly followed suit. The impact of this sudden move was felt immediately as all these countries closed off their airspace to Qatar. Doha is a major international hub and all flights going through the Qatari capital had to be rerouted. Qatar also imports its food, with a significant percentage coming through Saudi Arabia. This led to panic in Qatar as citizens rushed to stockpile move. The action taken by Saudi Arabia and its allies may have been abrupt but it had been brewing for a long time. The Qatari-based TV station, Al-Jazeera, had already been blocked in many of the countries in a sign of the growing tensions. The official reason given for the severing of ties was Qatar’s alleged support for militant groups, including the Islamic State and (for Egypt) the Muslim Brotherhood. But the true explanation likely lies in Qatar’s closeness to Iran.

Qatar is far from the first casualty in the ongoing regional turmoil in the Middle East. Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya have become literal war zones in this battle for regional dominance. Any doubt which way the Saudi-led alliance is directed should now be removed after this punitive action against Qatar. This is why it was wise of Pakistan to announce that it would not be following suit and would instead maintain ties with Qatar. Since good relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran are important to us, getting dragged into this ugly fight would not be in our interest. But it has become clear that Saudi Arabia now feels emboldened to ramp up its offensive against Iran. It is surely no coincidence that this latest action was taken just two weeks after US President Donald Trump’s speech in Riyadh where he explicitly offered US support to Saudi Arabia against Iran. Who can benefit from these recent developments can be gauged by Israel’s response, whose defence minister said the move opens many doors to cooperation in fighting terrorism.   Both Turkey and Kuwait have offered to facilitate peace talks but till the politics of intervention, imperialism and regional monarchies are not effectively challenged, there is little hope for a long-term solution in the Middle East.