‘Pakistan’s looming political instability and China’

LAHORE: An article published in China.org.cn says the latest verdict by the Supreme Court in the Panama Papers case has created more confusion than resolving anything.

The judgment came at a crucial juncture when the country was slowly recovering from the senseless violence by militants and its economy was showing signs of health, it added.

The article says Pakistan is just recovering from more than a decade of economic stagnation. Projections by international agencies show economic growth could touch 5.2 per cent this year. Now, that progress could be derailed. The tragedy is that it is happening when hardly one year is left before the next election is due in mid-2018.

The article says China as a strategic partner and main investor in Pakistan certainly should be worried at such developments. “It has been pumping billions of dollars into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, part of the Belt and Road Initiative and to link Western China through networks of roads and railways with the warm water port of Gwadar, located at the mouth of the Arabian Sea in southern Pakistan. The CPEC provides the shortest route for China to reach the Middle East, Africa and Europe.”

The writer adds that CPEC was announced when President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan in 2015. The project was supposed to have been launched in 2014, but was delayed as the PTI was protesting in the heart of capital Islamabad. The protest at that time was for alleged fraud in elections. The issue now has changed to financial corruption, but the tactics are the same.

“Mr Sharif has alleged that the 2014 protest caused massive economic losses by delaying the start of CPEC. The damage could be more substantial now if the protests were prolonged. It could delay completion of some of the CPEC projects due for completion by 2018 under the early harvest system,” the article says.

The writer warns that the next 60 days are crucial as the opposition wants Sharif to step aside for this period to let the probe take place without any potential government intervention. “It looks unlikely as Sharif and his party assert that though they would allow and even facilitate the probe, resignation is out of question.”“Hence, China might well be wise to view options as to how the potential dangerous political instability could be avoided without getting dragged into the messy local politics.”