New battlegrounds: Part - I

“This is the first time in over a hundred years that the US secretary of state is going on his first visit to Latin America.” 

These were the words of Mauricio Claver-Carone, the US special envoy for Latin America, in a background briefing with foreign journalists one day before the visit of US Secretary of State Rubio’s visit to Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic.

The last time something like this happened was in 1912 when the then-secretary Philander Chase Knox went to Panama to oversee the conclusion of the Panama Canal’s construction and operations at the time.

Special envoy Mauricio also mentioned that President Trump’s focus and priority on the region can be gauged by the fact that he has appointed the most experienced senior policy team ever in the history of the US government to the Americas.

He added: “Twenty years ago, people were talking about whether the 21st century was going to be a Chinese century or an American century, and if you read those materials printed 20 years ago, there was much material saying that this was going to be the Chinese century because America was in decline and China was on the rise… American greatness and the golden age is that the 21st century will also be an American century.”

The visit of Secretary Rubio started in Panama, where, along with other issues, the focus of the conversation was the Panama Canal. President Trump has made that an important issue and a priority by mentioning it in his inaugural speech as “how this extraordinarily strategic asset that the United States built and handed over to Panama has become an asset of China.”

Further commenting, Mauricio said, “The increasing growth of China, which the Varela government expounded in – with this recognition of Beijing a few years back in 2018 and then this increasingly creeping presence of Chinese companies and actors throughout the Canal Zone – and everything from force and logistics to telecommunications, infrastructure, and otherwise – which is very concerning not only, to the national security of the United States, but to the national security of Panama and the entire Western Hemisphere.”

So, it is clear that during Trump’s second presidency, the countries of Latin America will be the battlegrounds of the China-America power struggle. Since former Chinese president Jiang Zemin’s landmark thirteen-day tour of Latin America in 2001, with a comprehensive strategy combining trade agreements, infrastructure investment and state-backed financing, China has steadily decreased, if not eroded, the American influence in the region.

President Xi has visited this region five times since he took office in 2013. By 2024, 12 regional countries have signed a free trade agreement with China, and 22 nations of the Western Hemisphere have joined Beijing’s flagship project – BRI.

In 2021, China’s trade with South American nations exceeded $450 billion; economists predict it could exceed $700 billion by 2035. China has surpassed the US and currently ranks as South America’s top trading partner and the second largest for Latin America after the US.

In 2023, China’s foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean amounted to nearly $9 billion; simultaneously, the state-owned China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China have loaned more than $120 billion to Latin American and Caribbean governments in the last two decades. Venezuela is the biggest borrower, having received nearly $60 billion worth of Chinese state loans; Brazil comes next with almost half of that amount.

China also provides the region’s countries with a market for their exports. In 2022, Chile’s exports to China totaled $38 billion, 39 per cent of its total exports. So, these countries’ dependence on China is rapidly growing. Beijing has also expanded its cultural, diplomatic, and military presence and influence in the region. China’s strategy in Latin America is also focused on security and defence cooperation. China’s efforts to forge stronger military ties with its Latin American counterparts include arms sales, military exchanges, and training programmes.

The Central American Parliament, representing Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic, has voted to expel Taiwan as a permanent observer and replace it with China in August 2024. Before that, these states dropped diplomatic relations with Taiwan, starting with Panama in 2017, Dominican Republic and El Salvador in 2018, Nicaragua in 2021, and Honduras in March 2024.

The US has always considered this region its backyard. More than two centuries ago, in 1823, US President James Monroe issued a declaration known as the Monroe Doctrine, regarded as the guiding principle of US foreign policy in the region. The Monroe Doctrine established the US’s position against European colonialism and declared the Western Hemisphere its “sphere of influence”.

To be continued

The writer is a journalist and researcher based in Washington, DC. He can be reached at: fayaznaich@gmail.com