Remittances expected to surpass $35bn in FY25: analysts

KARACHI: Pakistan’s remittances are projected to exceed the central bank’s forecast of $35 billion for the fiscal year 2025, thanks to the country’s efforts to curb illegal foreign exchange trade, increasing citizens working abroad, and economic stability bolstered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout, according to analysts.

In a recent report, an analyst at Topline Securities estimates that remittances will reach $37 billion this fiscal year. He expects the country’s current account balance to breakeven, resulting in a surplus of 0.5 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) -- equivalent to approximately $0-2 billion -- primarily driven by higher-than-expected remittance inflows.

During the July-December period of FY25, remittances increased to $17.8 billion, representing a 33 per cent rise compared to the same period last year. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects total remittance inflows of $35 billion for this fiscal year, up from $30.3 billion in FY24.

Remittances play a vital role in supporting the country’s external account and foreign exchange reserves. Currently, the SBP’s forex reserves amount to $11.37 billion, sufficient to cover over two months’ worth of imports.

According to the SBP’s monetary policy statement, while the import bill has exceeded export earnings, remittance inflows have more than compensated for the widening trade deficit. Given these trends, particularly the strong remittance growth, the outlook for the current account balance has significantly improved. It is now expected to remain within a surplus or deficit of 0.5 per cent of GDP in FY25.

Saad Hanif, head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, anticipates that remittances will rise to between $34.8 billion and $35.5 billion in FY25. He noted that the increase in remittances can be attributed to several factors, including the growing number of people travelling abroad for work, the ease of using Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA), improved policy stability under the IMF programme, and a crackdown on illegal transfer channels such as ‘hundi’ and ‘hawala’. In the last two years, over 1.5 million Pakistanis have gone abroad for work, which has boosted remittance inflows. The ease and speed of banking services, particularly with the growth of RDAs and fintech, are encouraging the use of legal channels for remittances.

Tresmark, a financial terminal, stated in a note that surging remittances could be transformative for Pakistan’s economic viability, but certain misconceptions need to be addressed.

One common myth is that everyone in Pakistan is emigrating. However, data shows that emigration patterns from Pakistan align with trends observed in the region, including India and Bangladesh.

Another misconception is that Pakistan is experiencing greater remittance growth than other countries. The report clarifies that, over the past five years, remittance performance in Pakistan has been comparable to that of India and Bangladesh, although the trajectories have differed slightly.