Pakistan faces potential wheat shortfall as farmers reconsider sowing

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan could see a wheat production shortfall this Rabi season (winter) year 2024/25, as farmers hesitate to plant the crop, frustrated with government procurement policies they say lead to financial losses.

Farmers are increasingly reluctant to sow wheat this year, citing low crop prices and inconsistent government procurement as reasons. Despite wheat being a crucial staple in Pakistan, government policies that traditionally aimed to stabilize prices have recently faltered, leaving many farmers without a reliable buyer and minimal price support.

A senior official, who attended the recent Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) meeting, told The News that the hesitation by farmers was largely due to issues with wheat procurement, particularly in Punjab being the major procurer, where the government traditionally purchases wheat from farmers at a set support price. However, many farmers struggled to sell their crops this year, leading to a steep drop in wheat prices — in some cases, significantly below the government’s announced rate.

The FCA, chaired by Federal Minister for Food Security and Research Rana Tanveer Hussain on October 29, initially proposed a wheat production target of 33.58 million tons for the Rabi season, but provincial officials urged a reduction of around 5.66 million tons, suggesting a target of 27.92 million tons. This target is significantly below the last season’s wheat output of 29.7 million tons, achieved on 9.6 million hectares.

It is worth noting that the Rabi season began on Oct. 1, yet the FCA meeting has been delayed by a month — a first. Typically, the meeting takes place just before the season’s start. And now, the meeting was held but the central and provincial governments did not agree on wheat production target for the next Rabi season.

For the upcoming season, federal projections placed the wheat cultivation area at 10.368 million hectares, but provincial representatives reported a more conservative estimate of 9.263 million hectares. The FCA meets twice a year to assess Kharif crop yields and set targets for the Rabi season. In Pakistan, the Kharif season, which runs from April to September, includes crops like sugarcane, cotton, maize, and rice, while the Rabi season, from October to March, primarily produces wheat, barley, and pulses.

According to FCA data, sugarcane production for 2024-25 is provisionally estimated at 85.5 million tons from an area of 1.193 million hectares, reflecting a 4.3pc increase in area and 11.5pc increase in production over previous targets. Rice output is projected at 9.079 million tons from 3.630 million hectares, an 18.5pc increase in area and 4.0pc rise in production.

Other key targets for 2024-25 include gram at 419.4 thousand tons, potatoes at 6.83 million tons, onions at 2.55 million tons, tomatoes at 658.7 thousand tons, and chillies at 56.8 thousand tons. Mash, another pulse, is expected to be produced at 5.77 thousand tons from 7.48 thousand hectares, showing a moderate growth.

Adding to the challenges, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) forecast a 16pc water shortage for Punjab and Sindh provinces during the Rabi season, allocating 31.136 million acre-feet (MAF) of water for the season, pending a review in early November.

The government aims to stabilize food production by providing farmers with affordable inputs and ensuring better prices. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has boosted agricultural credit with an allocation of Rs2.25 trillion for the fiscal year 2024 — an increase of 26.7pc from last year’s Rs1.776 trillion target.

Currently, 47 formal financial institutions, including five major commercial banks and two specialized banks, offer agricultural loans. Lending institutions disbursed Rs2.216 trillion during FY24, meeting 98.5pc of the SBP’s annual target.

Officials said the supply of urea and DAP fertilizer is expected to be stable during the Rabi season. Representatives from provincial agriculture departments, the State Bank, Pakistan’s Meteorological Department and other national agricultural and water management agencies attended the meeting, underscoring the urgency of securing food security as challenges loom for the upcoming season.