Third time unlucky?

The important message from Imran Khan’s Lahore rally is that he will relentlessly pursue his second campaign to unseat Nawaz Sharif before his third term is up. He has also learnt useful lessons from the 2014 sit-in at D-Chowk in Islamabad. While addressing a charged gathering of his supporters on Sunday, the kaptaan was careful not to give any deadlines or invoke help from unnamed quarters. He appeared geared up for a sustained campaign, particularly in Punjab.

The Charing Cross event was part concert, part fashion show, laced with slogans and threats. If the corruption charges are proved true, the PM would not go home but to jail, Imran boasted. The Sharifs must be held accountable for the growth of their family’s wealth and business holdings. This could be more ominous than the demand to reopen four constituencies, when Imran had hoped to reopen the entire election on charges of rigging. What is less reasonable though is the kaptaan’s tendency to arrogate the roles of adjudicator, prosecutor and judge to himself.The PTI wants to take the other ‘corrupt’ rulers along to punish the Sharifs. Thus, the terms of reference (TORs) of the judicial commission will be framed by the combined opposition. As far as we know, the chief justice has not yet invited the political parties to determine the TORs. The prime minister has already conceded that the court can determine the TORs by itself.

The past week saw the three major political parties of Pakistan re-position themselves for the upcoming battles around the Panama Papers. The PML-N leadership has directed its energies to warding off and deflecting the ferocious attacks from the PTI and the PPP leaders. What we are seeing by way of a huge commotion on the political landscape may be a prelude to an all-out power struggle before the general election. Few believe that the country can afford two years of confrontation before the election.

The first family’s inclusion in the Panama Leaks is a serious matter. PM Sharif might believe that by referring the controversy to the chief justice, addressing the nation on primetime TV and braving the summer heat to reach out to the electorate, he can defang the kaptaan’s second attempt to force him out of office. But adding to Mian’s woe is an all-out attack by Bilawal, asking the prime minister to step aside until the inquiry into the Sharif family’s offshore businesses is completed.

The Panama story broke out when the PML-N leadership was under increasing pressure to crack down on criminal and terrorist gangs in Punjab, on the lines of the Rangers-led operations in Karachi. Things got complicated when the army claimed a tough anti-corruption drive within its ranks.

As of now, the PML-N faces a multi-pronged attack. The projection of Nawaz Sharif as a friend by some Indian TV networks, while criticising the other Sharif, has landed him in further trouble, as both Bilawal and Imran take digs at Nawaz for being Modi’s friend.

Panama is now only one of the ingredients of the brew concocted against Nawaz. A major attempt to destabilise the Sharifs’ hold on power in Punjab and consequently in the centre has begun. Panama provides a formidable handle to the opposition to portray the Sharif family as prospering while the socioeconomic indicators of the nation are declining. Demands for early elections may gather momentum as the only way out of a debilitating stalemate, which may seriously affect economic activity in the country.

A lot was said on the smooth transition of power from one civilian government to the next in the 2013 elections, improving the credentials of civilian rule in Pakistan. But it is proving to be a pyrrhic victory, as the people have not benefited from that smooth transition. The PPP’s rule had also failed to improve the common man’s lot. Its supreme leader was tainted with charges of graft, while its first premier was forced out of office by the Supreme Court. Nobody was surprised at the drubbing the PPP received in the 2013 election, with the exception of Sindh. What greater proof of Zardari’s vulnerability is needed after his self-exile to avoid facing justice, when his henchmen were at the receiving end?

The PML-N’s strategy in the coming weeks would be to diminish the sense of urgency for the Panama probe and to prolong its tenure, hoping that the public will have a short memory. Eventually, for the Sharif family, the best scenario would be to see the PM exonerated from any personal involvement in transferring wealth to the offshore accounts of his children.

Panama or no Panama, there are other pressing issues to address. The vicious long hours of loadshedding are back and can easily become another sore point for the government’s unenviable ratings. The opposition’s attacks on the Sharifs for undertaking very costly infrastructure projects to the detriment of vital social sectors like education and health are taking an increasingly virulent tone. It was amusing to hear the PM speak about making those sectors higher priorities for a change.

Panama and the election rallies in AJK have given Bilawal a welcome opportunity to go on the offensive against the Sharif order, pressing for the PM’s resignation pending the probe. Strange though it may sound, the third term prime minister is under growing pressure, with many people wondering how he can complete this term. Third time unlucky, some might say.

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com