The 90-day friction

We are back to regular business in politics – regular being an indulgent term in our case, since it mostly entails long pointless conversations over the exact date PML-N supremo Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif is expected back in the country, and the usual lack of clarity within the former government parties on when elections will, should and could be held. With reports coming in yesterday that Nawaz Sharif is expected to return to Pakistan on October 15 this year as per Sharif family discussions, the momentum for the PML-N may be about to increase. However, let’s not forget that we’ve been here before: there were reports just some time back that Nawaz’s return was on the cards in September and even former prime minister Shehbaz Sharif had claimed in an interview that Nawaz would be back next month and face the law. At that time, PML-N leaders had made it clear that Nawaz would not return while Justice Umar Ata Bandial remains the chief justice of Pakistan because the party does not trust the current judiciary. But now we have – yet again – confirmation from London that Nawaz will return in October. Political analysts say that Nawaz Sharif’s return is linked to elections in February 2024. If elections do indeed take place in February 2024, Nawaz’s return makes sense because he will be leading the PML-N’s election campaign and would need a few months to mobilize their voters in Punjab. This claim is not surprising given that several PML-N leaders have said the same thing over the past few weeks – though the political situation on the ground changes within hours or days, and not just weeks or months.

The PML-N leadership had already been saying even before the new census was approved by the Council of Common Interest (CCI) that there could be a delay in elections. This is why when the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) announced that the new delimitation of the constituencies across the country would be notified in December this year and the final publication would be on December 14, there was not much of a reaction from the PML-N. But the PPP has reacted quite vocally to the ECP’s announcement. After its CEC meeting yesterday, the party has unequivocally stressed that elections must be held within 90 days. The PPP has come down quite strongly on this issue despite criticism from observers that the PPP had signed off on the census and should have known that elections can be delayed if they take place as per the new census. There are different opinions on why the PPP is reacting this way – some say that the PPP is sure that it would win the elections in Sindh and, unlike the PML-N whose win depends on how Imran Khan and the PTI’s future fares, the PPP does not need any such guarantees. However, others say that the PPP is now nervous that if elections are delayed and new seats are notified in urban Sindh, those seats may eventually benefit the MQM. Whatever the reasons for the PPP’s principled stance, this is a major disconnect from within the PDM and its allies. Cynics point out that this could be a deliberate tactic to shift the blame to the ECP and not take responsibility themselves.

Whatever be the reasons for the PPP's opposition to a delay in election, the fact remains that a delay in the general election is not something any democratic political party should happily accept or encourage. The debate over who gets to call elections is a constitutional one; the constitution is clear on that and almost all legal experts of note agree on that. The time of election is also a constitutional issue; the constitution is clear on the 90-day rule and almost all legal experts of note agree on that too. The delimitation of constituencies is not a constitutional obligation. There may be political reasons behind delaying elections, and to political stakeholders they may seem bonafide enough but one wonders what form of the constitution we will be left with if we continue as is.