An elusive election

Will we have general elections this year? In a constitutional democracy, this really shouldn’t be a tough one to answer but we seem to be grappling with the concepts of both democracy and the constitution. The government had just a short while back indicated that the election will be held in October or November – based on the last census. The reasoning: the new census – Digital Census 2023 – had not even been approved and notified yet. Per the thinking then, notifying the new census and then conducting elections on its basis would have meant the election was delayed. Now, however, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has come out with a whole new plan it seems, saying that it only makes sense for the general elections to be held on the basis of the new census, and that the government will be calling a meeting of the Council of Common Interests as soon as the results are completed/compiled. Per the PM, this shouldn’t mean a delay of the election. Those within his own cabinet tend to see it somewhat differently, with Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal saying the 90-day deadline cannot be met if elections are held on the basis of the latest census results.

There seems to be some confusion within the ruling coalition regarding the census. The MQM has been demanding elections on the basis of correct population count. Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar too is now #TeamCensus2023, telling Geo on Tuesday that back in 2018 there was an agreement among political parties that the next elections would be held on the basis of the new census. The PPP, for its part, has been saying it wants elections on time. Needless to say, this is looking quite messy. If the prime minister thinks that under the new census the elections will be on time, he may be in for a surprise. Once the Council of Common Interests approves the 2023 census result, the ECP could take around four months to conduct fresh delimitation exercises. That pushes the election till at least February next year. All these calculations pretty much make the October/November election date suspect. What exactly is the government thinking then? Potent rumours though they may be, but a number of factors are in play here. First is Balochistan. Under the new census, Balochistan is set to gain around 16-17 seats. For a province that has long struggled to be seen as more than just a handy proxy for powerful players, this is a huge bump. Why would the province agree to an old census when it can gain so many more seats at the table? The PDM coalition may not be thinking this altruistically about Balochistan but for them too Balochistan is a good enough reason to delay the election. The province getting more seats means the BAP comes into play. Whichever party the BAP ends up with – the PPP or the PML-N – it won’t be the PTI. A return of Nawaz after CJ Bandial’s tenure ends in September could also be a relevant reason – to ensure the PML-N supremo has his feet firmly on the ground by the time the election rolls around.

At the heart of it all seems to be a concerted effort to ensure power stays within the ruling coalition parties. The PTI’s fate is being decided through a variety of measures: rushed-up legislation; hushed-down media and social media presence; and now an assurance that even if by some miracle the PTI does make it to the election, the odds remain in favour of the ruling coalition. The calculations are cynical but perhaps the government and its allies are aware that the people are hardly going to protest a delayed election if they are constantly worried about how to put food on the table, commute to work, or get their kids to school in this back-breaking economic situation.