Experts term permanent growth an improbability

LAHORE: Experts point out the improbability of permanent growth, as its acceleration and deceleration dependents on government policies, planners’ ability to benefit from any global and domestic scenarios, etc.
They said planners can ensure maximum growth with prudent policies planners. However, there will never be smooth growth at all times. In favourable circumstances, and right policies, growth may reach new heights or the economy may move up. In a depressed global or domestic scenario growth would be low in poorly managed economies and slower in better managed countries.
“The massive reduction in petroleum and commodity rates has improved the economies of many countries, including Pakistan, but not all the countries are experiencing the same buoyancy in growth,” said economist Faisal Qamar. He said governments that handled the positives and negatives in the global economy during the last 12 months helped their economies grow at faster pace. He said India for instance is destined to grow at the fastest pace this year compared to any other global economy, replacing China as the fastest growing global economy. Pakistan, he added is likely to post a GDP growth of only 4.2 percent, much below its target of 5 percent GDP growth.
He said both countries benefitted from low petroleum and commodity rates. The inflation in both countries declined, appreciable more so in Pakistan. Central bank policy rates have also declined in both countries. He said for the first time in 10 years the policy rates in Pakistan are lower than India. Both countries, he added missed export targets due to heavy decline in the value of euro. However, he added there was a surge in private sector credit uptake in India, while it declined in Pakistan. He said there is a rise in foreign investment in India whereas it is declining in Pakistan.
Qamar said planners have to remain on their toes and look for growth areas, and then stick with them. He said each growth area would require specific measures and policies. Gone are the days when economists used to say that you build the policies and growth would follow.
Economist Asif Ali Shahid said disruptions caused by technologies in businesses have also created opportunities and challenges for the governments. He said controls can now be effectively exerted by sitting hundreds of miles away.
Monitoring police, land revenue officials, doctors and teachers is now possible anywhere in the country. It is regrettable that in this age of cheap and affordable technologies we have absentee teachers in schools and ghost doctors in hospitals in the remote areas of each province. He said police accesses can be controlled through electronic surveillance of police stations. Traffic police, he added could be directed to issue challan chits at specific places where camera recording is possible.
Shahid said an education officer could monitor lectures being given in any government schools to ensure quality education. “These are not expensive solutions, as the improvements in services would save billions and billions of government resources that go to waste,” he said. Police too would be forced to act promptly on complaints.
Social worker Dr Kishwar Dhingra said one wonders as to why our rulers are reluctant to use affordable technology that could reduce corruption and motivate the relieved populace to work for growth. She said corruption suits vested interests.
Their bread and butter are chaos and bad governance. A technology based transparent government model would deprive them of sustained flows of money. She said tainted money continues to grow irrespective of the state of economy of the country. “As corruption sinks the nation, those benefitting from corruption get richer,” she said, adding good governance is a death knell for vested interests.