An electoral quagmire for PML-N

ISLAMABAD: A stunning defeat at the hands of voters in Punjab, the prized stronghold of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has thrown into disarray the governance and electoral roadmap of the party over the next year, insiders admit.

The July 17 by-election results have proven to be a significant setback for the PML-N and vindication for its arch-rival Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its effects will reverberate across the country in the days and months to come.

The dismal performance has deepened the crisis for the party not only at the provincial but also at the federal level. The PML-N was leading the coalition government with a razor thin majority since April this year. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif knew that he was heading an unstable government. Yet, he carried on with his governance agenda in the hopes that with his management skills, he would be able to steer the country, and his party, out of the crisis. Slowly, but surely, over the last few weeks, Shehbaz Sharif’s government was beginning to gain a sure footing. But the abysmal performance of his party in the by-polls in the province, which has traditionally been the stronghold of the PML-N, has raised serious questions about the party’s legitimacy to govern at the federal level.

Insiders say that although the ruling coalition was confident about carrying the National Assembly to its full term in August 2023, the possibility of an early election in October or November is now looking very real. “There is a strong view emerging in the PML-N cadres that Shehbaz should not be heading the government in the Centre after suffering such a humiliating defeat in the Punjab,” an insider requesting anonymity told The News. “The coalition government may still carry on under the leadership of another party, but after July 17, the PML-N is facing a huge credibility crisis and Shehbaz Sharif should resign. Alternatively, the National Assembly could be dissolved and a fresh election can be called in October or November. Deliberations about these issues are underway.”

The decision to dissolve the National Assembly will also raise questions for Imran Khan, who is now feeling emboldened after a successful performance in the Punjab. It is important to mention that after the Vote of No Confidence on April 9, Imran Khan has constantly been calling for fresh elections and a fresh mandate. Despite these calls, however, the PTI did not dissolve the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly and in Punjab, Usman Buzdar, the-then chief minister, resigned but the assembly remained intact. If the National Assembly is dissolved, will the PTI also dissolve the provincial assemblies?

“It is too early to say, especially after such a great victory in the Punjab by-polls,” said a source close to PML-Q’s Pervez Elahi, who is the PTI’s candidate for chief minister in the Punjab. “It is very much possible that the PTI and its partners may prefer to continue ruling in the province and agree to only an electoral contest at the federal level.”