No conspiracy

The National Security Committee (NSC) has said there was absolutely no conspiracy by a foreign government in the ouster of former prime minister Imran Khan. In a meeting attended by the highest officials of the country, including the prime minister and the chief of army staff, former ambassador to the US Asad Majeed gave a briefing on the context and content of his telegram (dubbed the 'letter' by the PTI). The NSC press release states that after hearing from the ambassador, examining the contents of the communication, and with feedback by security agencies, the committee has concluded -- once again -- that there is no evidence of conspiracy, as has been alleged by Imran Khan and his party. The previous NSC meeting, under Imran Khan as PM, had also not alluded to the cipher/telegram as showing evidence of conspiracy. Then in a candid press talk, the DG ISPR had also categorically denied the use of any such word by the NSC. Ideally, that ought to have laid the matter to rest but the PTI's obsessive peddling of this narrative led to yesterday's NSC meet.

The question is: what now for the PTI? Most analysts are agreed that the NSC statement will not change the course chosen by Imran Khan who has clearly decided to build his election campaign around the 'conspiracy' by the US to remove him from power. Only two days back, during his Lahore rally, the former prime minister had once again asked his supporters to not 'allow traitors' to win the next elections. Already, the PTI has decided to spin the latest NSC statement as validation of its theory, citing the fact that the NSC has said it 'agrees' with its previous finding as proof that there was 'blatant interference', which the PTI takes as proof of 'conspiracy'. While such circular logic may come across as convoluted to a simple reading of the two statements, and the DG ISPR press conference, there is little chance of the PTI backing off from this slogan. Imran has said that he will rest only if a judicial commission examines all the evidence. But then, there is every possibility that if a judicial commission is set up, at the end of it Imran and the PTI will refuse to believe the contents of the verdict if they go against their narrative. There is also the feeling that the judicial commission may be a ruse to just prolong the longevity of the conspiracy slogan.

Those that thought Imran could take the conspiracy story only so far may have to rethink their analysis since all signs point to the possibility that not only is an Imran with his back to the wall going to be even more enthusiastic about this, but the narrative has in fact caught people's imagination quite effectively. In a country prone to believing in conspiracy theories -- in some cases, probably not without reason -- Imran and the PTI's theory sounds perfectly plausible. If things continue this way, we may see an Imran willing to speak even more openly about who he thinks helped the conspiracy. That cannot be good for anyone. The government will need to counter the narrative strongly. And this is where the NSC statement does fall short by neither clarifying what the previous statement meant by 'blatant interference' nor explaining what and how a demarche works. In fact, the PTI and its supporters will only use this as another aha moment and further throw around the conspiracy as a way to rile up its constituency, which is already happy to label anyone that disagrees as a traitor. We have seen the way dissenting PTI members have been heckled in public, and journalists have been harassed, with filthy campaigns targeting them. There is zero concern in the PTI for how this damages Pakistan's foreign policy or affects those being labelled part of an international agenda against Imran Khan, or plays a dangerous blame-game dragging all institutions of the state into it. Tragically, it is obvious that anyone trying to find logic in this whole episode will be termed traitor by the PTI and its leader.