‘Pakistan wheat import bill may hit record high’

LAHORE: A business group on Saturday warned of a record increase in country’s wheat import bill, saying repercussions of Ukraine crisis and an expected drop in domestic wheat yield would weigh on the bill.

PM Imran khan announcement to import two million tons of wheat from Russia was yet to accompany a proposed timeline, and a shortfall of 15 percent in wheat yield was looming amid shrinking acreage, poor application of fertiliser, water scarcity, and limited certified seeds, Pakistan Businesses Forum (PBF) said on Saturday.

“Estimates suggest Pakistan will need to import around four million tonnes of grain to meet the local shortfall, and the country’s wheat import bill, in the worst-case scenario, may climb up to $4 billion during FY23,” PBF vice president Ahmed Jawad said.

He also called upon the government to impose a ban on wheat exports of local grains amid serious repercussion of the Russia-Ukraine war, which would disrupt the supply of wheat in the international market.

He said the announcement by the PM last week to import two million tons of wheat from Russia reverberated a similar sentiment, but did not accompany a proposed timeline, and was interpreted as ‘a move to buttress country’s strategic reserves’.

“Only a bumper yield can help save the day and protect the country from an exorbitant import bill in the midst of a global price spiral.”

Pakistan had harvested a bumper crop and produced a record 28.75m tonnes of wheat last season. It had to import 2.2m tonnes of grain to meet local requirements and build strategic reserves of 1m tonnes. A 15 percent loss in the yield means there would not be more than 25m tonnes wheat output this year, he added.

Ahmad Jawad suggested the government to maintain wheat stocks through procurement during the on-going harvest and put a stop to wheat exports in all scenarios.

Wheat prices in the international commodity market are witnessing extreme volatility on ongoing conflict in the Black Sea region, and it is unlikely that prices will stay within this range for more than six months. International prices bottom out post-April on a seasonal basis, as production estimates from major producing regions, especially India, begin to trickle in during the post-harvest period.