End the lockdown

Pakistan is very different from Europe and North America. The UK with a population of 67 million has suffered more than 33,000 coronavirus-related deaths. Pakistan with a population of 220 million has suffered around 800. The US with a population 33 percent larger than Pakistan’s has suffered 85,000 corona-related deaths as opposed to around 800 Pakistan. The US with a population 33 percent larger than Pakistan’s is experiencing a thousand corona-related deaths a day as opposed to around three-dozen corona-related deaths a day in Pakistan.

Yes, our demographics are different. Pakistan is one of the youngest countries in the world. Pakistan’s 80-plus population is 0.5 percent of the total while the same percentage in the US is over 5 percent. Sixty-four percent of our population is below the age of 30 and 29 percent is between the ages of 15 and 29 years. Pakistan’s 0-9 year age population is 28 percent for a total of 61 million. Pakistan is very different from Europe and North America.

According to the Bank of England, “the UK economy is heading for its worst crash in more than 300 years because of the coronavirus pandemic.” According to Reuters, “the US economy lost a staggering 20.5 million jobs in April, the steepest plunge in payrolls since the Great Depression (90 years ago).” Pakistan is very different from Europe and North America. The structure of our economy is different. The distribution of our labor force is different. For example: 1.4 percent of the workforce in the US is employed in agriculture while 42 percent of our workforce is employed in agriculture.

Because our demographics are different from Europe and North America. Because our economy is different from Europe and North america. And, because the distribution of our workforce is different we need not “impose the same social distancing guidelines as Europe and North America to halt the spread of COVID-19.”

A study by Yale School of Management has three conclusions. Conclusion 1: “Social distancing measures are predicted to save a large number of lives in high-income countries, to the extent that practically any economic cost of distancing is worth bearing. The economic value generated by equally effective social distancing policies is estimated to be 240 times larger for the United States, or 70 times larger for Germany, compared to the value created in Pakistan or Nigeria….”

Conclusion 2: ”The cost of leaving Covid-19 uncontrolled in the US is unambiguously large. This is due to higher predicted mortality rates in the US relative to other countries and the higher base VSL (value of a statistical life). In comparison to US losses, the dollar costs of uncontrolled Covid-19 in large countries such as Pakistan or Nigeria look minuscule.”

Conclusion 3: “Without mitigation policies Covid-19 still imposes a large welfare cost above 130 percent of GDP in rich countries like the US and Japan. In contrast, due to the lower predicted mortality rate, the losses in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Nepal in the unmitigated scenario are about 50-60 percent of their own (lower) annual GDP.”

We must, therefore, have our own, country-specific strategy. We must find our own balance between corona-related deaths and the economy. Europe seeks solutions in a lockdown. Our solution does not lie in a complete lockdown. Lockdown in Pakistan must be phased out.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh