IHK: What Pakistan can and cannot do to counter India

Contrast has never been starker: PM Modi unilaterally scarped the status of Jamu and Kashmir and buried with it all understanding of the world made on the back of UN resolutions, Shimla and Lahore agreements while Pakistan reacted in a very mature and calculated way launching diplomacy as the best tool to highlight the bellicosity of India; Islamabad came out in support of Kashmiris by observing 'Black Day' on August 15 as Delhi celebrated the 73rd Independence Day.

But is Pakistan realising the changed nature of the geo-politics of the world, region and the level of threat emerging next door to its sovereignty and economic survival, besides, prospects of dehumanising of Indian Held Kashmir (IHK)?

For the first time, the world is increasingly witnessing demagogues elected by the people leveraging their fears of minorities and immigrants: Trump, Netanyahu, Modi and may be President Putin also fits the bill.

In order to gain votes, these populist leaders will more than even target a minority community to use as scapegoat for their more pressing issues, like economic and foreign policy challenges which are vote losers. In other words, ethnic displacement is used as a tool to extend political power.

For example, no one expected PM Modi to use nationalist card (Kashmir and Pakistan) before and after elections, instead of focusing on economic woes. Now the trend is even more obvious if the displacement of minority community has a tag of being Muslims: Palestinians, Rohingya and Kashmiris, for example.

In this context, the global axis of stabilising situation has also started behaving differently since President Obama days: the US is no longer willing to intervene even behind the scene to support the oppressed minority—Kashmiris.

China also worried about terrorism and Islamophobia, is even less likely to have any real world policy: its economic aspirations have been the lead guidelines operating for the geo-political hotspot. The Arab world offers no hope to ask for in helping out Kashmiris.

Russia also asserted geo-politically as being witnessed the way India is lauding Moscow for its stance. The UN and other forums are but an extension of geo-political control of big powers conveniently ignoring their own resolutions. Pakistan must not fail to comprehend following grave implications:

It has seen a new potential Prime Minister of India in Amit Shah who is more than willing to go beyond scraping article 370 wanting ethnic cleansing of Kashmiris (by proposing settling 2.5 million Hindus in IHK) and pledging to redeem the core Hindvata terror ideology, i.e. “Akhand Bharat” (read, Pan Indian Empire) setting sights on Pakistan firmly—after formally making India a “Hindu Rashtra” under Modi.

Already the modification of IHK’s status has set the stage for likely radicalisation of Kashmiris who will be more than willing to respond in violent ways; it will also radicalise body politics in Pakistan and radicalise the understanding of the Kashmiri woes worldwide as ethnic cleansing is now trending globally.

China wants Pakistan to resolve the issue with India without any violence.

Increased militarisation of IHK will lead to further disaffection and human rights violations and hence more violence which India will blame on Pakistan likely culminating in more Balakot events forcing Pakistan to respond and tread up the escalator ladder in unwanted ways.

Islamabad having limited option of diplomatic and political course, is no longer in position to raise fist in the air possibly facing a new wave of radicalisation of its right-wing extremist groups restrained till now, likely nullifying its efforts of de-radicalisation and mainstreaming.

Reportedly, the RSS slogans for the next campaign focusing on AJK for what it believes vacating the alleged occupation by Pakistan, will soon be inaugurated in New Delhi by its lead activist Indresh Kumar expanded to the whole country.

Last but not least, BJP government has no domestic opposition for the foreseeable future to force moderation in its Kashmir or Pakistan policy or an end to its hate campaign against Kashmiris and Pakistan. So it may be tempted to directly intervene or subvert territories in AJK and GB possibility leading to tit-for-tat response from Pakistan.

In a nutshell, Islamabad is facing new breed of fascists under Modi India, after August 5 which has changed the geo-politics of South Asia for the next decade.

Islamabad can adopt both defensive and offensive options vs India:

First, defensive (short term) measures: They include diplomatic, political and legal surge, i.e. U.N., UNSC, IOC, ASEAN, GCC, SCO, ICJ, Criminal Court of Justice; scaling down the Indian mission—already downgraded ties.

Second, Pakistan can review Shimla and Lahore agreements.

Third, Islamabad should expressly declare its intent to redraw the LOC using unpredictability as a ploy to discontinue treating LOC as sacrosanct.

Third, economic and logistic measures: halt imports—already done— denial of air access to Indian flights to and from Afghanistan and beyond permanently.

Fourth, strategic measures: deleverage India in Afghanistan—limiting Delhi’s influence; incentivise Iran to replace India with China in Chahbhar port as investor or make its route dysfunctional in Afghanistan raising stakes for India in Kabul; and as India depends on Kuwait, UAE and KSA for oil, special relations with them and burgeoning thaw with Russia can be leveraged to bridge gaps if Islamabad pushed to take “one step forward and two step back” for fallback position to manoeuvre a certain strategic objective.

What is not possible for Pakistan is to punish India “through proxy” due to the FATF and IMF pressures and associated fiscal ramifications. And also Pakistan cannot use its leverage with the Taliban to scuttle a deal with Trump Administration as after 18 years, Islamabad will likely succeed to chuck out Indian equities in Afghanistan.

Fifth, offensive options (medium term)—Pakistan through macro stability, fiscal and monetary and other supporting policies, can make economy robust enough to sustain itself for long haul without loans reducing vulnerability vis-a vis the perception of Indian strategic establishment of Islamabad being a defaulting state; it can support financially Kahsmiri opposition (short of kinetic help—as mentioned—is a non-option in the immediate future) like what India is doing in Balochistan; Islamabad can raise the cost for India by manipulating foreign fault lines of Delhi particularly business and financial; it can hurt India’s soft image as a country—unsafe for FDI and portfolio investment; It can mobilise diaspora Kashmiris to sustain their war of attrition in IHK for coming decades; Islamabad can smash India’s dream of East/ West corridor to CA; it (Pakistan) can make it a national security imperative raise Kashmir specific tax for sustaining robust campaigning (Think tanks, propaganda, 5th generation warfare, cyber offensive and sophisticated lobbying in important capitals of the East and West etc). [Note: at least 7/8 % growth rate can fund other overt and covert measures and “medium terms” implies 20 years’ period, at least as we are in for a long hail].

Neither we as a nation can forget and forgo Kashmir, nor we can accept the primary supremacy of India in this region due to today’s limitations of Pakistan’s leverages and constraints imposed by power differential, realpolitik, India’s status of client state and apathy of international community.

Only smart, well thought-out and measured policies spanning over medium terms will likely deliver.

Here is a quote 2 remember:

“The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood”. Otto von Bismarck.

Are we ready for cold, calculated and sustainable policies rather than knee jerk outbursts and rhetorical stances?

(Jan Achakzai is a geopolitical analyst, a politician from Balochistan, and ex-adviser to the Balochistan government on media and strategic communication. He remained associated with BBC World Service. He is also Chairman of Centre for Geo-Politics & Balochistan)