Possibility of peace

After a seemingly indefinite period of stasis, there have been some signs in the last month that all sides in the Afghanistan war may finally be ready for peace. The breakthrough began when the Afghan Taliban published an open letter in February, addressed to the American people, urging them to pressure its government to start the peace process. An indirect reply came in the form of a speech given by Alice Wells, acting assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, on Friday where she said that the Taliban need to talk to the Afghan government. At the same time, Pakistan Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif told the National Assembly that the country will not act as a proxy for the US in Afghanistan. The intention of Asif’s statement was to make clear to the US that our priority in the war against militancy is still the TTP and its allies rather than the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network. Even though the source of recent troubles in the Pakistan-US relationship has been these militant groups, Asif’s statement was necessary to kick-start the peace process by signalling to the US that it cannot pressure Pakistan into an essentially unwinnable situation.

The US may finally be reaching that conclusion too. Its decision to announce head money on TTP chief Maulana Fazlullah, Mangal Bagh and Abdul Wali is an attempt to reduce the strain in ties between the two countries. That Deputy Afghan Foreign Minister Hekmatyar Khalil Karzai said at the same time that Afghanistan is ready to hold talks with Pakistan regarding our concerns is further evidence that all sides may finally be ready to negotiate and compromise. Still, some sticking points remain. The Afghan Taliban refuse to recognise the Afghan government and have stated their preference for negotiating directly with the US, something the Trump administration is loath to do. Pakistan will not directly involve itself in arranging negotiations without getting something in return, preferably a reinstatement of security aid. The increased involvement of India – done at the behest of the US – adds another wild card to the mix. But at the very least all sides now seem to realise that an endless war will never achieve peace. A political settlement is the only way and will require the buy-in of all of Afghanistan’s neighbours. Actually reaching that point is still far into the future but the public statements of the last few weeks have brought it a little closer.