TLP protest was aimed at curtailing PML-N vote bank

ISLAMABAD: The tragic, violent seizure of the Faizabad intersection by the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) was basically aimed at nibbling at the electoral power of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) especially in Punjab.

The occupation was the TLP’s menacing but imposing preparation for the upcoming general elections. Its love for the finality of the prophethood of Hazrat Muhammad (PBUH), which is the most obligatory part of faith of every Muslim, apart, the protest was without a doubt a part of the series of machinations that are being employed to whittle down the support of the PML-N, which, according to all opinion polls, is still the most popular party.

It is not a secret that the TLP is poised to take a plunge in the electoral fray for the first time in the nationwide parliamentary elections in 2018. Its chief has announced to contest these polls, and obviously for this purpose the TLP has got itself registered with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) as a political party.

A general view is that after its better performance in the by-elections to NA-120 Lahore and NA-4 Peshawar and its first-ever sit-in at Faizabad, the TLP has succeeded in considerably shaving off the PML-N’s electoral standing.

However, a dispassionate analysis and evaluation is the need of the hour to determine the real impact on the overall political landscape and the damage done to the PML-N by the TLP phenomenon.

One, the way the TLP viciously protested by capturing a strategic crossing of the federal capital, its unwavering holding of the ground for twenty-two days at a stretch and its confrontational agitation in some areas did help it not only to maintain but add something to its vote-bank primarily comprising a religious sect that has a large following in Punjab and some parts of Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

What is the electoral worth of its vote-bank? Its support -- around 7,000 votes -- became evident in the two recent by-polls. However, this electoral power does not exist in every or a predominant majority of the federal and provincial constituencies even in Punjab that is the real target to cut down on PML-N’s popularity. There may be a handful of constituencies across the majority province and some other areas of Pakistan where the TLP may have such kind of support. But given its present state of affairs it is apparently in no position anywhere to win single-handed.

Two, in constituencies where the margin of victory of the PML-N candidates will be too narrow, the TLP gains will make a visible difference against them because the sect this entity represents always principally supports the PML-N. Most of the spiritual leaders associated with this branch like the influential Sial Sharif shrine custodian had been allies of ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for decades. In areas where the difference of votes between the winners and runners-up will be slight, the PML-N nominees may suffer. However, the quantum of such loss may not be very huge. But in a fiercely-fought polls, which the next elections are expected to be, even a few upsets because of the TLP factor may be considered very substantial.

Three, there are quite a few factions even in this sect, and everyone doesn’t stand with the TLP. It is anybody’s guess whether or not all these groups will get together under the umbrella of Allama Khadim Hussain Rizvi-led TLP. For example, the mighty Sial Sharif shrine custodian showed no solidarity or support to the Faizabad sit-in or protests in other parts of Pakistan. His demand is focused against Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah, who, it is expected, will meet him to settle the matter.

Another instance of division in this sect is the continuation of a separate sit-in in front of the Punjab Assembly building in Lahore by another group -- Labbaik Tehreek Ya Rasoolullah – led by Dr Asif Jilali, which has vowed to remain peaceful. Its demand is similar to that of the Sial Sharif Pir. A week before the TLP’s Faizabad protest, the same faction had organized a sit-in on Jinnah Avenue of Islamabad. Rizvi has now asked Jalali not to come on media as he doesn’t represent the TLP.

Three, in the overall political context it is the first time after seventies that this sect has emerged as a formidable political force. Previously, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (JUP) under the leadership of Maulana Shah Ahmed Noorani and supported by Khawaja Qamaruddin Sialvi used to symbolize this vote-bank. But later, this party split into different factions, ultimately losing its national identity and force. In the 1970 elections, the JUP had scored significant gains in Karachi.

But the JUP was never a violent force and late Noorani was known for sophistication of his language even while talking against his archrivals contrary to Rizvi’s offensive and rough style. What the TLP chief has presented is a totally new violent face of this sect, which has always had the creditable feature of being peaceful. His advisers and aides are required to beseech and convince him into tempering down his choice of words.

A monumental task before the TLP will be to bring all the votes of this sect all over Pakistan in one basket, which certainly seems a tall order because every faction considers itself most commanding in its specific areas. If this sect remains divided, its political relevance and bearing will be affected.

Regardless of its electoral power and ultimate gains in any elections, the TLP has undoubtedly come out as a ominous outfit, which has demonstrated its capacity to create bloody chaos and turmoil in several cities.

Traditionally, Pakistan’s electorate have never voted in a big way for the religious parties to enable them to form government at the federal level. The TLP has no power to break this practice.

The TLP has surpassed the power of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) of Allama Tahirul Qadri in the field of violence. The massive trouble generated by the PAT at least thrice – at the D-Chowk in 2013, in Model Town and at the D-Chowk in 2014 -- looks less threatening compared to what the TLP spawned in terms of disorder particularly in Punjab. The PAT also speaks for the same sect but other factions do not recognize it as such.