Nawaz Sharif’s rescue formula

In what appears to be a decisive phase for the PML-N before the next general elections, some important decisions are likely to be taken in the London meeting, including the return of former premier Nawaz Sharif and winning back Chaudhry Nisar – party's second senior most leader.

The London meeting is aimed at keeping PML-N’s house in order and to tackle political developments in Pakistan, which Sharif fears are part of a conspiracy to keep them out of politics to create space for their opponents.

The meeting would discuss all these issues before taking a final decision to handle it politically or legally and the risk involved in both. The decision will lead to the possible return or otherwise of Sharif. If Sharif decides to stay back, the party could face a 2001-like situation which led to the split and emergence of another PML, now known as PML-Q.

The move to bring Sharif back as the PML-N president may be a bid to reunite the party internally and rescue him from no-win situation, but can he win back Nisar who is disappointed over the manner in which he was suddenly kept out from the ‘core’ and felt that Sharif would not have been facing this situation had he accepted his rescue formula.

Nisar from day one was against the policy of confrontation for two reasons. One, he believes that you need an army, not merely a commander, to fight a war. In PML-N’s, it never has the capacity to sustain agitation. Its DNA is different from that of PPP.

Secondly, going into confrontation without homework or finalising second and third line of defense would be disastrous. On the other hand, Sharif feared that the sudden reopening of cases one by one could not be a coincidence and must be part of a larger conspiracy to keep him completely out from political scene before next elections.

The decision to bring him back as the PML-N president may not help as far as the decision of os his disqualification concerned and he remain disqualified to become an MNA. He can still keep the party intact by assuming the role of party's ‘Rahabar’ or ‘Quaid’ instead of taking the position as president.

Nisar is the one who had given Sharif the rescue formula one after another from the day the party decided to write to the Supreme Court for constituting a judicial commission and asked Sharif to take the Parliament and nation into confidence. Nisar opposed to the idea and his counter proposal was that speaking too much could hurt him. Secondly, writing to the apex court may not help us.

The Sharif family is now meeting in London and the issue of Nisar would also come up in the presence of Shahbaz Sharif, as the key matter as far as the PML-N internal problems are concerned. It is still too early to say whether Sharifs would try to win over Nisar, but it must be a sign of relief for the elder Sharif that Nisar is not leaving the party.

Nisar still wants an answer as why he was mysteriously isolated from the party’s top hierarchy and why Mian sahib decided to rely on his junior team.

Mian sahib, on the other hand, is disappointed over Nisar's public outburst and also because of some of his remarks regarding Maryam Nawaz, particularly at a time when she was campaigning in NA-120.

Shahbaz Sharif's statement on Friday rescued the situation and dispelled all speculations' regarding a split in the Sharif family by reposing confidence in the leadership of Nawaz Sharif. But at the same time, he clearly hinted that the party must avoid policy of confrontation, something close to the position taken by Nisar.

His rescue formula was simple and the one he had proposed few months back when for the first time Sharif decided to approach the Supreme Court. Sources said Nisar opposed the idea and was perhaps the only leader in the party, who was also against Sharif's address to the nation and even to the Parliament.

The most surprising was the fact that at one stage Sharif himself had decided to step down till the outcome of the decision, but Nisar was the first who said, “This is not the right time.” He was of the view that by speaking too much on this issue, at a time when he himself is the prime target of the opposition, he would gain nothing and on the contrary would fall in the trap.

His last ditched effort to rescue Sharif was at the time when the first 3-2 verdict of the Supreme Court was announced and the court decided to form a JIT. While most of the party leaders saw the verdict as pro-Sharif, Nisar advised the PML leader to oppose JIT, particularly the presence of ISI and MI representatives. He also wanted Sharif to oppose the time limitation given to NAB to complete the proceedings within six months.

Sources close to Nisar believe that Sharif and PML-N paid a heavy price by not challenging the first verdict. When the JIT started grilling Sharif family and others followed by leaked photo of Hussain Nawaz, which was nothing but to give a strong message to Sharif as what was about to come, Nisar's fear was vindicated.

It was perhaps too late when Sharif, Maryam Nawaz and others started raising question over JIT and presence of the representatives of premier agencies. It was nearly all over for Sharif, when the final verdict of the Supreme Court practically sealed the chance of Sharif's political return to the Parliament.

The party than was left with little options and so the high command met to decide the future course of action. His legal team was not very optimistic about the success of review petition despite having some strong points. Firstly, they told the leadership that the mood of the bench clearly reflected in the judgment and secondly, hardly in any case review stand a chance.

Now, when the party leadership discussed political options, Nisar opposed the GT Road rally on the ground that if the party is going for review it would not help with the leadership attacking judiciary or judges. He also gave a very clear picture to Sharif about the thinking within the establishment.

When the decision to go ahead with the GT Road formula was taken, Nisar asked “have we decided about the second or third line of defense”, keeping the consequences of confrontation either with judiciary or establishment. He feared that the leadership would would not get much support from its allies or the PPP-like parties.

The person in agreement with Nisar Shahbaz Sharif who too was surprised when suddenly the party high command started ignoring Nisar as he was kept away from “closest and close core meetings”, one comprising four to five members, other around 10 to 12.

Nisar was of the view that the party should not do anything which could lead to a situation where it may find itself in a difficult situation to complete its remaining 10 months in power.

Thus, the ball is in Sharif's court to resolve issues with Nisar and repose his confidence in him as no one other than the two Sharifs know the importance of Nisar. But Nisar also need to control his emotions and refrain from outbursts, particularly when it comes to Sharifs. There is not much time left for the 'trio' of Nawaz, Shahbaz and Nisar to decide the future of PML-N now.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.  

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO