KARACHI: What Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) can politically gain from the loss of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif in the form of his disqualification as long as he remains central figure in the present crisis and his party is intact? Political developments in the next few months would determine the fate of Sharif's politics. This is what former president, Asif Ali Zardari, is looking for: the space between Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
Zardari has become quite active since Sharif's disqualification, though the main political beneficiary in the post-Supreme Court verdict is Imran Khan, who’s now confident of his success in the next elections.
But both Imran and Zardari also know that Sharif is “down, but not out”, irrespective of back-to-back political setbacks. Even if he is out from electoral politics, he is still a key political figure both at national level and particularly in Punjab. His younger brother, Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif is still considered as the strong man of Punjab.
The space for the PPP, particularly in Punjab, depends on the final outcome of the Sharifs cases. If they manage to sustain till June next year, and get majority in March 2018 Senate elections, it could be all over for the PPP in the big province of the country. Zardari could then wait for the possible hung parliament in 2018, to play his cards.
Secondly, Sharif's electoral constituency has never been PPP's constituency. Sharif’s vote bank is Muslim League's vote-bank, which has always been anti-PPP and vice versa. So, even political loss to Sharif would not completely benefit the PPP in the elections.
Zardari, perhaps, had misread 2013 elections. Keeping the threats or the allegations about returning officers (ROs) aside, the PPP never contested the last elections and the vacuum was filled by Imran Khan.
Imran got the space after Benazir Bhutto's assassination and made inroads into Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Both PPP and PML-N badly misjudged the rising popularity of Imran among the new voters in particular. In the absence of BB, the PPP under Zardari could not create an impact in the party in Punjab and its voters went to the PTI.
So, the challenge for the PPP and Zardari would be how to win back its own vote bank. So, the PPP’s challenger is neither PML-N nor the PTI, but its own cadre, which have distanced itself from the party. PPP's any stance against the PML-N or Sharifs only goes in favour of the PTI.
Zardari's politics is not based on any ideological commitment, but he does politics as per demand of the situation. He considers himself as the master of taking advantage of the ground realities. Therefore, it hardly matters for him whether the PPP today stands on the right side of history or wrong.
In what looked like a belated comeback, the PPP and Zardari decided to focus their politics in Punjab and have taken NA-120, a weak constituency for the PPP, as a test case, just to see party's strength in the area. Since the fall of PPP in 2013 elections, the party has yet to recover and its performance in bye-elections and local government polls has been quite disappointing for the leadership.
The PPP still has some good faces and leaders like Qamar Zaman Kaira, Nadeem Afzal Chan, Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan, Yusuf Raza Gilani etc, who are trying hard. But it appears as if the PPP has not yet come out of the Sharif- or PML-specific politics and not yet given any new programme to reach out to masses nor major political activities have been witnessed except a few public meetings.
The PPP has to fight a political battle on two fronts: PML-N and the PTI, particularly the latter, which had already filled the vacuum created by the PPP in 2008 and 2013. What alternative plan Zardari or the PPP have for the people? Even those supporting the PML-N, who are disappointed with the party or government, would not switch their loyalties in large number. But, even if they do, it would not go in favour of the PPP. They may either go towards PTI or PML-Q.
Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto may not be able to make major inroads into Sharif's constituencies. Sharif's strength is still businessmen, traders and urban middle class. Therefore, despite personal political setback, Sharif still has firm hold on the party despite reports of some cracks. The PPP’s constituency like strong trade union, peasants and students have already been eroded while women and minorities are divided.
It is true that Zardari is a very shrewd politician. He has his own style of politics and irrespective of the general perception about him, the PPP co-chairman has a game plan to see his party's place in the future government set up, which he can only achieve if Sharifs and the PML-N were cut to size before the next elections.
Sources said Zardari would try to go to any extent to see the fall of PML-N government before March, 2018 to prevent the PML-N victory in the Senate elections, something which he had once predicted. On paper, it looked difficult, but the way political developments are taking place in the country with uncertain future of Sharifs, anything can happen.
He wants to prove those political pundits wrong who have ruled out PPP's chances in the next general elections. Fully aware of how weak the PPP is in Punjab, his game plan is to ensure that the future parliament is a hung parliament, something which suit his political intrigues.
His refusal to shake hands with former prime minister Nawaz Sharif or even trying for his already branded Sharif's politics as ‘close transition’. With such a fate of former prime minister, he or the PPP are not in favour of Article 62 and 63, but they don't want to give new life to Sharif even if the political price is too high.
From the image of ‘Mr Ten Percent’, he intend to get his name cleared from the last corruption case against him in the National Accountability Bureau, which has now started day to day hearing in which Zardari's lawyer has also filed an acquittal application.
PPP's only gain would be to revive its ideological base, which perhaps, would be a bid difficult for Mr Zardari, who plays his cards according to the demanding situation. Therefore, the PML-N’s loss is not PPP’s gain.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.
Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO
