Talking to India

Of all the issues that hinder relations between Pakistan and India none hold as much long-term significance as the fight over water resources. This is partly because of an accident of geography, with all the major rivers in the region originating in India but the problem has become even worse in recent years as the reality of climate change and prolonged droughts has set in and India has started constructing dams at breakneck speed. It was against this backdrop, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s threat to cut off the supply of water to Pakistan last year, that the two countries met in Washington recently for talks at the World Bank. The agenda for the two-day talks was India’s construction of the Kishanganga and Ratle dams, which Pakistan says violates the Indus Waters Treaty and reduces the amount of water due to it. India’s response is that it is allowed fair use of the rivers and the fact that Pakistan has been unable to construct dams of its own means India should be allowed to use the water for its own agricultural needs. Despite reports in the Indian press that the World Bank had ruled in favour of India, the talks ended in a stalemate.

Finding a solution to the water issue is difficult for both technical and political reasons. The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960. Since then the water needs of both countries have changed and climate change has essentially made the treaty archaic. Ideally, the treaty would be renegotiated to reflect current realities. This is where the political problem kicks in. India under Modi is refusing to even consider the idea of negotiations. It went out of its way to point out that the meeting in Washington was being held under the auspices of the World Bank and did not constitute a resumption of bilateral ties. This intransigence is extended to other spheres too. In Kashmir, the Indian occupation is as brutal as ever, with five protesters killed by security forces in recent days, leading to fresh protests. Public figures from both countries who have been part of the moribund Track II diplomacy process met in Dubai last week and urged a resumption of bilateral talks. Pakistan has long been open to the idea of talks, whether bi- or multilateral. The only sticking point right now is the extremist government of Narendra Modi. It wants to continue waging a campaign of violence in Kashmir and to justify it by demonising the Kashmiris as terrorists and Pakistan as their patrons. In such an atmosphere, urging diplomacy is important but could end up being futile.