Germany’s most populous state goes to the polls on Sunday, with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party aiming to extend a winning streak that could seriously damage her rival before national elections.
One in five German voters -- 13.1 million -- will cast ballots in North Rhine-Westphalia, a sprawling industrial region with a big migrant population which has been a Social Democratic Party (SPD) stronghold for 17 years.
But surveys show the centre-left party running neck and neck with Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, with the latest published Thursday even putting it behind the CDU, adding to indications that initial enthusiasm for new SPD leader Martin Schulz could be fizzling out.
The SPD had been ailing nationwide but saw a surge in support in February when Schulz took over. That, however, failed to translate into votes in the last two state elections, when the SPD took a hammering and the CDU won comfortably.
"In a region where the SPD should be leading the CDU by 10 points, even if we tied with the party, it would already be a clear signal before the general elections, showing that the Schulz effect is over," said Wolfgang Partfoerder, 67, a former CDU mayor.
Nationwide, the SPD is also struggling to close the gap, polling says. The party is now banking its hopes on incumbent NRW state premier Hannelore Kraft, 55.
"If Kraft succeeds, then the chances of the SPD’s bid to take back the chancellery grow. If she loses, it would mean that the Schulz train has slammed against a wall," said Spiegel weekly.
Political analyst Oskar Niedermayer also noted NRW’s significance to the SPD, saying "a defeat there would be a disastrous symbol" for the party.
With much at stake four months before national elections, both Merkel and Schulz are pounding the streets in NRW where 18 million people live, including 4.2 million of migrant origin.
Speaking in the town of Haltern am See, Merkel urged voters to look at her government’s economic record, noting that NRW, with 7.5 percent unemployment, lags behind the national rate of 5.8 percent.
"Through intelligent policies and solid finances, and by doubling our investments in research, we have managed to reduce the number of jobless people to half that in 2005 when I became chancellor," she said, campaigning for CDU candidate Armin Laschet.
