Less rainfall, irrigation water scarcity hold back wheat plantation

LAHORE: Changing weather pattern seems to be taking a toll on winter crops as no rains during the past two and half months and high temperature are hindering a timely plantation of wheat, a country’s main staple food, sources said on Saturday. 

“Only around one-third of the targeted area could be sown till November 20, which is considered an optimum time for completing the wheat sowing in most parts of the Punjab,” said an official. The province accounts for 80 percent of total wheat production in the country.

Even till December 10, wheat could be planted over 16.20 million acres against the target of 16.80 million acres for the current season. Last year, wheat plantation was completed over 16.39 million acres. The government set the wheat output target at 26.01 million tonnes for the 2016-17 Rabi season. Last year, wheat production was recorded at 25.4 million tonnes as against the target of 25.8 million tonnes.

“Observing the deadline is crucial for harvesting a good crop,” an official said. “Two-third of wheat being cultivated in the province during 2016/17 Rabi season is bound to produce relatively low yield.” 

Officials are, however, sanguine about the wheat outlook 2016/17. “The relatively high soil temperature even till November-end is very much favourable for wheat sowing,” an official said.   They are also upbeat on a greater off-take of fertiliser during this season, saying it would definitely help in achieving good wheat yield.

The prevailing dry weather is also likely to affect the crop’s output. There has already been a decrease in wheat acreage in the province’s arid zone. Around 0.2 million acres of land could not be cultivated this year due to absence of rain. Against the target of 1.19 million acres, wheat sowing could be made possible only over one million acres, down 16 percent. 

The country’s metrological department has already forecast less-than-average rains in December and January. A few westerly waves will reach to central parts of the country, resulting in below normal rainfall during this month. Situations are likely to improve a little in January and near normal rainfall are expected. Day temperature is likely to remain slightly higher than normal during the period, according to the department.

Surface and ground water resources are also expected to experience further depletion due to low precipitation. 

Availability of canal water is also becoming a problem. Indus River System Authority warned around 18 percent shortage of canal water during the winter crop season. 

Food ministry estimated irrigation water availability for the season at 30.34 million acre-feet (MAF) as against the average use of 36.3 MAF for the season.

Experts said the country has been experiencing a relatively variable and unpredictable weather patterns over the past few years. The erratic rainfall patterns result in the variations in the amount of available water both for irrigated and rain-fed crop, which consequently results in variable wheat yield.