Comlment: The $1bn opportunity

LAHORE: Pakistan’s entrepreneurs could find the new growth frontier their industries urgently need. The opportunity lies not across the Wagah border, but across the Indian Ocean. Pakistani entrepreneurs to look beyond the frozen trade corridor with India.

Industry experts urge to target the rapidly expanding middle classes of other South Asian nations and Africa, where millions of new consumers are joining the formal economy each year. The logic that once applied to India’s strong upper-middle-class market now applies, on a far larger scale, to regions hungry for affordable, reliable and aspirational goods.

According to the World Bank and IMF estimates, Bangladesh’s middle class now numbers around 35 million people, almost twice Pakistan’s, while its per-capita income has already surpassed ours. Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna are witnessing consumer spending growth rates of 8-10 per cent annually, led by demand for garments, electronics, processed food, and affordable automobiles.

Sri Lanka, despite recent crises, maintains a per-capita income of about $4,000, nearly double Pakistan’s. Nepal’s urban households are rapidly upgrading to modern consumer lifestyles, and Myanmar, once volatile, is again attracting regional brands seeking frontier markets. Across these nations, millions of working professionals, small entrepreneurs and remittance earners are transitioning from subsistence to consumption.

The real transformation, however, is occurring in Africa. The continent’s middle class, defined by the African Development Bank as those earning between $2 and $20 per day, now exceeds 350 million people, roughly equal to South Asia’s total middle class two decades ago. Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania and South Africa are leading a quiet consumption revolution driven by urbanisation, smartphones and aspirational lifestyles.

Engineering experts advise that Pakistani manufacturers must now view these regions not as aid-dependent economies but as markets in transition. The lower-middle class in these countries is no longer a survival class. They are consuming, gradually but steadily, affordable engineering goods, textiles, packaged foods, and household appliances. Pakistan has the experience and cost structure to serve this tier.

In low-cost items such as washing machines, fans, motorcycles and small generators, Pakistan’s engineering sector can compete effectively against China in select markets due to shorter lead times, lower freight costs and compatibility with local conditions.

Textile players believe that the soft-luxury textile segment — fabrics, stitched garments and home textiles — could be Pakistan’s flagship export to these new consumers. Bangladesh and African markets have a growing taste for printed lawns, embroidered fabrics, and fine cotton sheets. If we brand and market correctly, Pakistan can capture at least $1 billion annually from these regions.

However, to achieve this, Pakistani mills must invest in design, packaging and e-commerce outreach rather than relying on bulk exports alone. African women’s wear markets, especially in Nigeria and Kenya, show trends similar to Pakistan’s own urban middle class fifteen years ago.

In Bangladesh for instance, over 100 million mobile financial accounts power the consumer economy. In Kenya, M-Pesa and allied fintech platforms enable instant payments for household goods. Even Nigeria now has one of the fastest-growing digital-payment ecosystems in Africa. For Pakistani exporters, this means it is easier than ever to collect payments, manage small orders, and market directly to African or regional consumers through online channels.

Auto parts manufacturer and exporter Nabeel Hashmi adds says that while Pakistan produces 2.5 million motorcycles and around 375,000 cars a year — tiny compared to India — it can still export spare parts, filters, tyres, and engine components to emerging African assemblers. “They look for reliable supply chains, not global giants,” he stressed.

Pakistan’s domestic consumer base has shrunk under inflation, but its manufacturing expertise remains intact. To survive, industry must seek markets where incomes are rising and local production remains limited.

The South Asian and African middle classes together represent more than 400 million potential customers today, demanding products that are affordable, durable and adapted to warm climates and moderate incomes.