PMLN outdid PTI, PPP in managing economy over last 3 decades: Bloomberg

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy under the PMLN leadership had the best performance over the past three decades as compared to his rivals’ tenures, reveals Bloomberg Economics analysis.

Bloomberg’s report further noted that with PTI chief Imran Khan’s legal issues and deprivation of his party’s election symbol, Nawaz Sharif looks set to resume power after the February 8 general elections.

Apart from Bloomberg’s economic survey, local surveying agencies including Gallup have also indicated that Nawaz Sharif’s approval ratings have improved in the last eight months.

According to Bloomberg’s latest report, Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN scored better than Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) by using a misery index which informally measures an economy’s state by adding its inflation and unemployment rate.

“Bloomberg Economics used an average of the index values over the respective years when each of the major political parties ruled the country since 1990. A higher value indicates more economic hardship for citizens,” said the publication.

As per Bloomberg, Nawaz looks ready to take power after the general elections slated for February 8 for the fourth time, with Khan being incarcerated and stuck in a quagmire of legal cases. However, despite being in jail, Khan is still the most popular politician in Pakistan with an approval rating of 57%, as per Gallup opinion poll. Meanwhile, Nawaz’s popularity increased from 36% to 52% in the past six months.

“The public may be giving Sharif the benefit of the doubt,” Ankur Shukla of Bloomberg Economics wrote in the report, adding that the “road ahead won’t be easy for any party that wins the election”, considering the high inflation and unemployment rate. The inflation rate in Pakistan is close to 30% while the rupee performed as the worst in Asia last year with declining foreign exchange reserves.

Furthermore, the country is seeking a financial bailout from the IMF and the upcoming government will have to implement policies — withdrawing subsidies and raising taxes — that will be unpopular with voters. The global lender also expects the economy to grow by 2% in the fiscal year.

Moreover, in December 2023, Gallup Pakistan carried out a survey according to which “Within Punjab, Nawaz Sharif is ahead of Imran Khan.” The Gallup survey showed that PMLNN head Nawaz Sharif’s ratings have improved whereas, Imran’s remained almost consistent. The survey showed that the gap between PMLN and PTI has been narrowing in the last eight months slowly but consistently.

As per the survey, the gap between PMLN and PTI was 21 percent in Punjab with PTI in the lead in March 2023. However, the PMLN regained its position in Punjab and the gap is now around 2 percent in December 2023 surveys. It will be crucial to see whether the acceptability of PMLN continues to grow in the last 30 days before the elections. Similarly, another survey showed PMLN was ahead of PTI in Lahore.