News Analysis: What do PML-N, MQM-P hope to gain from pre-poll tango?

KARACHI: While some political analysts see the proposed ‘alliance’ between the PML-N and the MQM-P as a ‘marriage of inconvenience’, others feel that this alliance or partnership is the only suitable option available to both parties.

With the PML-N and MQM-P announcing that they will be jointly contesting the upcoming general elections, journalist Zia Ur Rehman who has covered Karachi politics for decades talks to The News about the possible reasons behind the alliance. According to Rehman, two factors may be at play: “the MQM and also electables in Balochistan have always veered towards the party they think will be forming the next government” and “traditionally the MQM does not get along with the PPP” He says that, “despite the fact that the PML-N had launched an operation in Karachi which impacted the MQM badly, for the party the PML-N is still a good option to ally itself with.” In fact, an alliance in Sindh seems to be coming together, says Rehman with “the JUI, GDA, MQM-P, and now the PML-N. They will try to get some votes from rural Sindh and then focus mainly on Karachi and Hyderabad.” Rehman feels that Tuesday’s alliance announcement could also be the PML_N responding to the PPP’s statement of allying with the PTI possibly in Punjab.

So should the PPP be worried? Rehman says that the party “has its feet firmly rooted in Sindh and even electables can see that. So, denting the PPP’s vote in rural Sindh would be very difficult.” However, he adds that “the fact that Bashir Memon has been made the Sindh head of the PML-N is obvious that the PML-N is looking to get some electables its way. The PPP will obviously be concerned about this”.

Speaking on Geo’s Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Ke Saath on Tuesday night, the MQM-P’s Mustafa Kamal said that it looked like no one was going to get absolute majority in the elections in the country, and a winning party in Punjab would have to make alliances with other parties. Why the alliance with the PML-N then? Per Kamal, “We have been a victim of the PPP’s governance through which they have destroyed everything. The PPP is not ready to change its attitude. Through its power, its police, its money, it wants to take over. The PPP has governed so badly that now it doesn’t want to contest elections but instead buy elections.” On the other hand, Kamal said that the MQM had had a “good experience working with the PML-N on the census issue in the last government.”

Elaborating further on why the MQM-P has chosen to join hands with the PML-N, MQM-P politician and member of the party’s Rabita Committee Taha Ahmed Khan tells The News: “We think the PML-N is the only option for us with whom we can have a good working relationship.” On how he thinks the MQM-PMLN alliance can work, he says that “in parts of rural Sindh and in Karachi there are a lot of seats on which if we and the PML-N together field candidates or we have an alliance in terms of seats, we can then give the PPP a tough time.”

The PPP factor seems to be strong in this calculation. Ahmed explains: “After the 18th Amendment which has not been properly implemented all the power rests with the chief ministers -- there is accumulation of power instead of devolution of power. We feel that in the 15 years of the PPP’s government in Sindh, Karachi has been badly damaged.”

Allying with the PML-N then makes sense for the MQM since “we are not direct competitors with them. We both have organizational structures in Punjab and Sindh but we are not directly competing with each other. So we feel that if we have a working relationship or alliance with the PML-N that could in the long term benefit Karachi.” For example, he says, “there are many seats in Sindh where the MQM may not be able to win itself but it can play a role in helping someone win (or lose). On those seats there can be an alliance for example between the MQM, the GDA, the PML-N etc”.

On Geo’s Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Ke Saath, the PPP’s Murtaza Wahab Siddiqui who is the mayor of Karachi said on Tuesday night that every party had a right to form alliances and that the PPP had encountered many such alliances against it in the past as well, adding that “we are ready, we are prepared....we will face our opponents in a dignified manner.” PPP co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari too had earlier in the day ‘welcomed’ the announcement.

Senior journalist and political analyst Mazhar Abbas feels that the PMLN-MQM alliance looks like a “marriage of inconvenience”. He explains: “While in the past voters in Sindh did vote for the PML-N in some areas such as Nawabshah, the party on its own -- without help from parties like the Functional League -- does not have a strong structure in Sindh.” Abbas also says that the “political realities of urban Sindh have changed so I’m not sure if this alliance can in any way hurt the PPP since to the PPP voter it hardly matters if these parties have joined hands. On the other hand, in fact a party from Sindh joining hands with a party from Punjab would and has been used by the PPP politically as we have seen in recent statements by Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari; they use such statements to consolidate and attract the vote bank in Sindh”.

Abbas says that another explanation for the alliance could be that “perhaps the MQM has been told to go towards the PML-N”.

How do the MQM’s prospects add up at the moment? Says Mazhar Abbas, “Unlike 2018, the MQM is in a much weaker position and is struggling to make a comeback. In a situation where Nawaz Sharif becomes prime minister, then the MQM may get benefits but otherwise politically this alliance will find it difficult to last. Remember that the PML-N conducted operations in Karachi and the MQM’s voters know that. The MQM is also divided among the London and Pakistan parties and within the Pakistan-based party too. But if in a post-election scenario the PPP and PML-N form an alliance, then the MQM would be the major loser in all this. Which is why perhaps they [the MQM] were told to go this way right now like they were told to join the PTI and then also told to leave the PTI.”Head of Geo’s Election Cell Nadia Malik looks at the historical context of such an alliance: “If this alliance does go through it would be no surprise from the MQM-P’s point of view. History is witness that they go where they are told to and they never sit in opposition, except when they see the government is about to go home or elections are near.”

According to Malik’s election calculations, “the MQM-P hasn’t done well in Karachi elections after the boycott announced by Altaf Hussain. Majority of party voters stayed home and the party only managed to win six NA seats in 2018. They did poorly in the Sindh local government elections as well. So with this alliance they may be looking for a seat adjustment, where they would try and win more seats by aligning with another party.”