COP-28, China and forward diplomacy of UAE

The world is gearing up for COP-28. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is trying to create momentum for positive outcomes. The UAE is approaching countries to build cooperation for meaningful engagements and outcomes, considering it an opportunity to fulfil the goal of Vision 2031, “consolidate its role and influence at the global level”.

However, independent experts and NGOs are cautious to comment on possible outcomes. They are quoting historical trends and failed attempts. The world has witnessed such campaigns often, but with no or weak results. They still remember the hype of Copenhagen. Unfortunately, it ended with “Brokenhagen”.

After Copenhagen, a new negotiation cycle started with the hope the world leaders would decide according to the needs. Again, the world had to wait until 2015 for a decent Paris Climate Change Agreement. China took the lead in having an agreement. Unfortunately, like Copenhagen promises, the countries are not fulfilling their commitments under the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Nationally Determined Contribution documents clearly show world is lagging behind. World Resource Institute report indicated the targets set in the submitted reports will not help keep the temperature below 1.5°C. The NDC data shows the estimated reduction in emissions would be around 7 percent, while IPPC pointed out there is a need for a 43 percent reduction against the 2019 levels. It means the world will cross the limit of 1.5°C, which would be disastrous for it.

It seems the global efforts to tackle climate are being made just to look good and try to avoid actions. For example, the European Union portrays itself as the climate change leader. We can hear lengthy speeches, but the EU actions do not support idealism. A few years back, EU came up with the policy of Green Deal.

It was propagated worldwide the Green Deal would revolutionise climate change actions. However, by using diplomatic language, EU has tagged its actions with the economic cost and competitiveness of its economy. It means if climate action impacts the competitiveness of EU economy, then it will reconsider its decisions and policies.

EU will also work to ensure a just and fair social transition. Unfortunately, it is not happening at domestic and international levels. Domestically, some sections, like farmers, are facing the worst problems. They are agitating against the Green Deal. The farmer community feels they have been ignored and the EU favours corporate groups. They are of the view in a few years the corporate sector will take over agriculture.

On the international level, EU and its members are pushing small and poor countries to take more actions. They are trying to avoid historical responsibility and the principle of equity. They have hired multiple NGOs and think tanks to forward their agenda. These NGOs and think tanks push their governments to take unilateral actions by ignoring the financial obligations of the developed world. They do not present any viable option for financing the climate actions. Instead of presenting methods or programmes on mobilising international financing committed under UNFCC or other frameworks, they ask countries to go for private or multilateral institutions' loans.

On top of everything, EU or these NGOs and think tanks do not care about the economy's competitiveness and fairness of actions. It is a well-established fact economies of poor countries are well behind developed nations’. They cannot compete with EU or other developed countries. The climate actions will further complicate the situation for the poor countries. It will also negatively impact the livelihood of millions of people.

Western countries also try to shift the burden of actions on China. They have been running a campaign for a long time to encircle China and blame it for climate change. But, they never mention China's role in combating climate change, domestically and globally.

Globally, China was leading in negotiating and finalising the Paris Climate Change Agreement. It has also launched global initiatives to tackle climate change and economic issues like Green BRI. China is diverting handsome financial resources to achieve the objectives of Green BRI. Global Development Initiative also has a dedicated chapter on climate change and development.

Global Security Initiative focuses on the environment and climate change as non-traditional security elements. On the domestic front, China is moving quite fast to achieve the goals of the vision of high-quality development.

The data shows China is ahead of time in achieving the set targets for energy mix, carbon peak and neutrality. China has already achieved the target of 50 percent non-fossil fuel-based energy. Xinhua news reported total install capacity of non-fossil fuel-based energy is 50.9 percent. Initially, China planned to achieve the target in 2025, but due to the government's dedicated efforts, it achieved it in 2023.

China is also on the course to achieve the target of 1200 gigawatts in 2025, five years before the deadline of 2030. It is also boosting the recycling industry to keep the pace of solar and wind energy installation. It is deemed necessary to keep China on the path of sustainable development.

On the other hand, China is also leading the tree plantation drive. According to NASA data, China’s contribution to global greening was 25 percent. These are only a few examples.

However, it is important to highlight China is implementing climate change programmes by creating a balance between emission reduction goals and living needs of people. It is in line with the vision of President Xi Jinping. Despite such contribution, the West is still focused and determined to blame China.

Against this backdrop, it is suggested UAE should work more closely with Global South, especially with China. It should try to mobilise their support. China can help UAE to achieve meaningful outcomes, as it helped during the Paris Climate Change Agreement. For that purpose, UAE can consider taking the following few steps.

First, UAE should activate the leading role of G-77+China. It is one of the most powerful representative groups of Global South. It is assumed support of G-77+China will help create a positive momentum. It will also urge the Western countries to engage in meaningful negotiations.

Second, UAE should try to create a balance between the goals of emission reduction targets and the living needs of poor people. The UAE must concentrate on poor countries' development status and needs for that purpose.

For example, agriculture and livestock are major sectors of economies for many developing and poor countries. Agriculture is also important for food security, not only in developing countries but also in the developed world. Many such countries, including UAE, rely on imported food. Farmers need support to sustain their role as food providers, implement adaptation programmes and financial resources to minimise the risk. Therefore, UAE should try to convince countries create a dedicated agriculture climate change fund.

Third, loss and damage must get the required attention. It is one of the biggest issues of Global South. Climate change disasters have played and are playing havoc with poor and developing countries.

For example, floods since 2010 in Pakistan have shaken the whole economic and social fabric of the country. In 2022, Pakistan had to bear a loss of $30 billion due to a flood. This is one example. We can find many in other countries.

Fourth, mobilise youth, media and NGOs from Global South to play an active role in propagating the message of climate change actions, including adaptation, loss and damage, and financial obligations of the West.

It is a golden chance for UAE to realise the vision of “forward diplomacy”. The UAE must try to grab the opportunity. Global South can help it in this regard. For that purpose, UAE must work with the Global South, especially with China.