Govt, industry at odds over Punjab cotton estimates, clouding crop forecast

LAHORE: Cotton production in Punjab, the country's main cotton-growing region, has been disputed by the provincial government and the industry body, with a huge gap between their estimates for the crop size, data showed on Wednesday.

According to a fortnightly report released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), production of the silver fiber in Punjab had reached 2.543 million bales by October 15, 2023, while the provincial Agriculture Department insisted output had boosted to 5.026 million bales during the same period, showing a staggering 97.64 percent more crop size.

Interestingly, Punjab did not issue per acre yield data for the fortnight, which is deemed necessary for having a better understanding of crop size.

As per the official release of the provincial government, the Crop Reporting Service recounted cotton production at 5.026 million bales in Punjab, as compared to 2.806 million bales of last year's corresponding period, registering a 79 percent increase.

As of October 15, 2023, nationwide cotton arrivals have been assessed at 5.996 million bales against last year's 4.90 million bales recorded in the corresponding period.

Cotton arrival in the country witnessed a significant increase of 19.3 percent as of October 15 compared to the previous fortnight ending September 30. The total cotton countrywide arrival jumped to 5.996 million bales from 5.025 million bales assessed on September 30, 2023, showing a healthy increase of 0.971 million bales.

Against last year's flood-ravaged crop, according to ginners, cotton arrival ballooned by approximately 62 percent year-on-year over the 3.708 million bales recorded on October 15, 2022.

The worrying thing about the latest PCGA stats is the dwindling trend in cotton arrival during the fortnight. Against the previous fortnight's flow of 1.091 million bales, ginners recorded 0.970 million bales of cotton in the two-week period that just concluded.

However, the fall in cotton flow to ginners factories in the Punjab province in the first half of October is a worrying development, if PCGA data is to be believed. In the middle of the cotton-picking season, farmers in Punjab provinces sold 0.473 million bales of cotton to ginners in the first fortnight of October 2023, compared to 0.524 million bales sold in the last fortnight of September 2023, a decline of 11 percent.

According to the latest PCGA data, cotton arrival reported a substantial increase from both Punjab and Sindh province. However, unlike earlier trends, Punjab is lagging behind Sindh in cotton production for the first time this year. As of October 15, cotton arrival in Punjab clocked in at 2.543 million bales, compared to 2.069 million bales reported on September 30, 2023, an increase of 22.9 percent. On a yearly basis, cotton arrivals from Punjab jumped by 22.7 percent, as compared to 2.072 million bales clocked in during the same period last year.

Conversely, cotton arrival in Sindh was 3.453 million bales till October 15, 2023 against 2.956 million bales arrived in September 30, 2023, highlighting a jump of 0.50 million bales or 16.8 percent. However, surge in cotton flow YoY basis has been remarkable in Sindh as compared to Punjab. Sindh's cotton arrivals swelled to 1.635 million bales showing increase in production by 111.2 percent as compared to what province registered in same period last year.