Ah, but there’s the rub

An ‘Alhamdulillah’ moment it was for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif when Pakistan reached a nine-month $3 billion staff-level agreement with the IMF on Friday, the second day of Eid. And it certainly lifted the spirits of the ruling coalition’s supporters.

There had been great suspense about it, with the threat of a default looming on the horizon. It was more real for some than others. Like in a thriller, the happy ending was delivered at virtually the last minute. The lead role in this ‘chase sequence’ was played by the prime minister. Obviously, his vindication bodes well for his party’s prospects in the expected elections later this year.

But what does it mean for Pakistan and what happens in the country in the immediate context? In the first place, of course, the bailout that has to be formally approved by the IMF Board by the middle of this month has grave economic implications.

That, obviously, is not my territory. However, comments made by independent experts and commentators suggest that this deal is a good sign for our economy. Miftah Ismail, the former finance minister of the present political arrangement, has called it good news for Pakistan during Eidul Azha. He graciously congratulated the prime minister for his personal commitment and for speaking to the IMF MD multiple times. For business and economy journalist Khurram Husain, this is a “ray of hope after a year of economic chaos”.

Altogether, there is a sense of relief that Pakistan has earned an economic breathing room. At the same time, there is increased awareness about the challenges that lie ahead in the economic domain. As it is, the acquisition of a loan or financial assistance is not something to be jubilant about.

For that matter, the thought of our economic management remaining the same cannot be reassuring. But we have generally remained prisoners of the business-as-usual mindset. It is repeatedly asserted that economic stability demands political stability – and it is politics that has forever been the source of our disorders.

This observation should allow me to turn to politics that has entered into its most treacherous and violent phase. There is the spectre of May 9 to contend with. Nothing has ever been so disruptive and so testing in our political history. While it is hard to grasp the extent and depth of what has already happened after that day of infamy, some very pertinent issues are still in the process of being resolved. Naturally, a number of questions relating to the ongoing developments in the political arena were posed to the prime minister when he addressed the press conference on Friday.

Eid has been some kind of an interlude in these proceedings. For instance, speculation about when Imran Khan would be taken into custody had rested on this premise: before Eid or after Eid? That is how a festival like Eid becomes a marker also in our personal business.

Anyhow, the before Eid option is now dead. We are entering into the after-Eid segment of time. There have been these five holidays and the action, in a sense, begins tomorrow – on Monday. The pace of events is likely to be hectic, under the dark shadow cast by that momentous press conference of the director general of the ISPR on Monday June 26. Its easily deciphered message was that the game for Imran Khan and his party was over.

How this ending is to be scripted is the cause of tension that is now gripping the nation. There are various dots that are yet to be connected. Surely, the IMF deal is woven in this story, giving the coalition government much confidence in playing its cards. Shehbaz Sharif has explained the government’s position on who will be tried in the military courts while the issue is still before a divided Supreme Court of Pakistan.

Against this backdrop, Pakistan has clearly a very welcome opportunity to make a new beginning. If the preliminary IMF deal can facilitate the necessary economic reforms and the anticipated closure of the May 9 disaster can restore some harmony in the political arena, what can now impede Pakistan’s gradual advancement?

Ah, but there’s the rub. Apart from the fact that old ideas do not a new beginning make, our rulers have congenitally ignored or paid little attention to an entire area of national activity that is crucial for any movement in any direction. I am referring to the social sector and the building of social capital. This is something that cannot be imported or borrowed. Nor can any judgment made in whichever court can change or modify our human development indicators.

There is this simple point that should be present to the rulers when they sit on the table of authority to make policies for this nation. No crisis, whether it is economic or political, can be resolved when there is a human capital crisis in the country. The truth of this statement is manifest in the quality of our performance and behaviour at all levels of society.

Though we did not need those reminders, international agencies and research organizations have constantly been trying to rouse us from our deep slumber, though in a careful and diplomatic nudge. We are not waking up. What opium has been administered to the rulers and the populace of Pakistan?

Almost exactly two months ago, the World Bank had released the Pakistan Human Capital Review in Karachi and Islamabad. One focus of the report was our population growth and the state of health and education. Pakistan’s Human Capital Index is below the South Asian average. We can only compare it with some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

In his IMF deal press conference on Friday, PM Shehbaz Sharif confessed that “this is not a moment of pride but of contemplation”. He would do well to hold a meeting of all high functionaries, and do some contemplation on what this World Bank Review is telling us.

The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached at: ghazi_salahuddin@hotmail.com