Recovery rates hold answer to reducing power load-shedding

A few kilometres opposite the Pakistan Meteorological Department is the dense neighbourhood of Baloch Khan Gabol Goth. Managed by a welfare union, the clean streets resemble an aspiring gated-housing society in progress. The residents, however, grumble about inflation reaching historical highs, and no electricity.

The neighbourhood is finding it hard to live in the summers. One resident, Asghar*, said: “I have been paying my bills, yet I am subjected to long hours without electricity.”

Despite running a corner shop that is seeing dwindling customers, Asghar consistently pays his dues on time. “I don’t understand why honest citizens like us have to suffer like this during the hot summers?”

In an informal survey conducted by this writer, just 48 per cent of the people from an approximate total of 2,000 users pay their bills on time. If 960 users are paying, what is stopping the rest, goes the logic.

“It’s the unit rate of electricity,” said an area representative. “Low incomes, unemployment and inflation are affecting everyone’s budgets. Even the union is frustrated at residents unable to pay their maintenance charges, which keeps the streets clean.”

Amid all the complaints about load-shedding in Karachi, there is a crucial aspect that often goes unnoticed — the role of individual households and community action in shaping their area’s load-shed profile.

While the focus remains on the availability of electricity, the reality is that 70 per cent of Karachi is load-shed free at any given time, as reported in the media.

It is the low recovery rates of certain pockets within the megacity that lead to increased brownouts in those areas. This data-driven analysis sheds light on the correlation between recovery rates and load-shed, revealing how households and communities can actively contribute to reducing scheduled outages in their neighbourhoods.

Taking a pan-Karachi outlook

For Baloch Khan Gabol Goth and the adjacent Usmania Mohallah, average unit consumption hovers between 200 to 300 units. If just 800 users can pay their outstanding dues that translate to around Rs6,000 per household, this neighbourhood can possibly decrease the load-shed hours for the area.

Similarly, in another area within the same district, some 2,200 connections supply power to Rabia Flower and Paradise Apartments, and fall within the “middle-income” threshold.

Out of approximately 2,200 users, a significant majority of 1,884 customers are paying their electricity bills. Per household unit consumption hovers around 350 units. However, with an additional 200 customers stepping forward to pay, the load-shed hours can see a significant change.

In the coastal areas where fishing plays a significant role, the recovery rate experiences fluctuations based on the fishing season. As it ends, fishermen are grounded, leading to a drop in recovery percentages.

In March the recovery rate significantly declines compared to the peak in January, when fishing excursions are at their highest. This logic is consistent for the areas around Bhutta Village and Keamari. Average household consumption is almost similar for the above areas (200 to just above 300 units).

At a chai stall, one resident disclosed that his bills are too high to take on more debt from friends or family, “When I and my crew go back on our boats in August, only then can I think of paying my bills.”

When asked if he then thought it was fair to ask for uninterrupted supply, he replied in a tired voice: “What can I do? Expenses on food and other essentials have risen, the costs on petrol and diesel are high.... In such cases, the government should be supporting people like us through these inflationary times.”

Some 3,000 customers would be required to get Bhutta Village back in the green zone for uninterrupted power supply. That’s more than 50 per cent of the existing paying customers — around 1,400 diligent and paying customers.

It’s always a game of numbers at the end of the day. In the densely populated regions of Orangi and Kati Pahari, the recovery rates peaked at 35 per cent in January.

But they gradually declined to 24 per cent by March, when inflation rose to 35 per cent, and its cascading effect hit the economy and jobs began to shrink.

Zainab*, who runs a community tailor service and deals with eight hours of load-shed on a daily basis, has completed intermediate education and is good at maths.

Despite the long outages, she adjusts her routine to match the timings of the outages, using the rest of the hours to cook or procure water, sometimes giving tuitions as well.

“It gets tiring. Sometimes no water is supplied or there is no gas. Our leaders don’t bother about the stress we have to experience daily,” she said.

Recently, she signed up for community financing, a revolving fund that finances individual contributors during a particular month. This, she feels, will help complement some of the expenses in hopes that inflation reduces in the future.

She is, however, shocked that just 1,120 households are paying their bills in her neighbourhood. “This is an injustice. Out of a total of 4,725 customers?” Zainab’s average unit consumption is 350 units. “Perhaps, everyone needs to sign up for community financing to help pay their bills,” she suggested.

To bring about a meaningful reduction in load-shedding hours, the recovery rate for her neighbourhood needs to increase to 76 per cent to 90 percent, which would require 3,591 to 4,200 customers paying their bills promptly.

While the focus on load-shedding often revolves around the availability and distribution of electricity, it is imperative to understand the influence of recovery rates and micro-economic factors in shaping load-shed profiles. By increasing recovery rates, households and communities at large can actively contribute to reducing load-shed hours in their neighbourhoods.

“It’s true, it isn’t that people do not want to pay. It’s just that their ability to pay has shrunk substantially,” said a local area representative. “We have been reaching out to our MNAs and MPAs to help set up a national fund that can partially pay some of the people’s bills. It is that or the government increase the daily wage so residents can catch up with inflation.”

*Names changed to protect privacy