Polls gains unlikely to shift power balance

‘The results in Tehran reflect a reformist orientation’

Impressive gains by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in heavily handicapped elections to parliament and a clerical body are evidence of an isolated nation eager to move from theocracy to a more open democracy, but few expect a sudden shift in power.

The Islamic Republic’s unique dual system of clerical and republican rule places decisive power in the hands of a conservative Islamic establishment, which has shown in the past its ability to reassert control when it feels threatened.

Rouhani may have a stronger hand to open up an economy ravaged by a decade of sanctions, but his scope to permit more social and political freedom is constrained by hardliners’ control of the judiciary, security forces and state media.

The scale of gains by Rouhani’s supporters was undoubtedly a setback for hawks opposed to any opening to the West.

Prominent critics of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers were defeated.

Centrists and reformers not only bounced back in a parliament under hardline control since 2004, but won a stunning 15 out of the 16 Tehran seats in the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which selects Iran’s supreme leader.

Two key hardliners including the speaker of the powerful clerical body were ousted.

Rouhani’s allies took all 30 parliamentary seats in Tehran, though their gains outside the capital were more limited, with conservatives keeping many seats in both bodies.

An unofficial tally by Reuters of first round results for the 290-member Majlis (parliament) show conservatives won about 112 seats, reformers and centrists 90 and independents and religious minorities 29. There will be run-offs in April in 59 districts where no one won more than 25 percent of the vote.

The numbers are approximate because Iran does not have rigid party affiliations.

Some candidates were backed by both camps.

The advances came despite the disqualification of thousands pro-reform candidates by an unelected clerical Guardian Council that reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"The results in Tehran reflect a reformist orientation and focus on improvements in the economy and foreign relations," said one Tehran-based analyst who requested anonymity.

"Rouhani will bring more order to the economy and greater openness in foreign policy but the overall structure and approach will not be altered. The vocabulary will be different, but the balance of power will not shift," he said.

These contests could shape the future of the next generation in Iran, where nearly 60 percent of the 80 million population is under 30 and anxious to reintegrate into the international community and return to world markets following last year’s nuclear deal and the lifting of most of the punitive sanctions.

Rouhani’s main ally, ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a shrewd operator who has survived every twist and turn in Iranian politics since the 1979 revolution and came top in the Assembly poll, urged hardliners not to stand in the way.

"No one is able to resist against the will of the majority of the people and whoever the people don’t want has to step aside," he said in a Twitter message.