Increased chances for Trump in White House race thanks to RFK Jr.

In this election, every vote counts, at least for former president Donald Trump. 

It seems the former President will succeed in reclaiming his seat in the White House, thanks to the potential influence of minor party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, according to an opinion published in USA Today.

Jonathan Cowan and Jim Kessler, who are president and executive vice president respectively for policy at Third Way, a center-left think tank, authored the opinion piece. They said that recent polls in six swing states showed a glimmer of hope for the Democrats, with President Biden leading in Wisconsin and tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania. However, the introduction of minor party candidates into the equation tipped the scales in Trump’s favour, according to them.

In a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Biden's narrow lead in Wisconsin turned into a loss, and Pennsylvania swung towards Trump when these minor candidates were factored in. Similar trends were observed in other surveys as well. Hence, it indicates a potential shift towards Donald Trump when minor candidates are in the mix. This shift could potentially put Trump back in the White House.

A Quinnipiac Poll also conducted the same week showed similar results. Biden led by 3 points nationally. But after the inclusion of Kennedy, Stein, or West in the political arena, Trump pulled ahead.

Trump's voting ceiling has consistently been below 50% of the electorate. Minor party candidates played a decisive role in his 2016 victory by siphoning 5.6% of total votes away from his opponents. The absence of such candidates in 2020 worked against Trump.

This year also, at least three minor party candidates are seeking to appear on the ballot. Each one may potentially harm Biden's chances. West and Stein, running from the extreme left, might not secure many votes, but those votes could be enough to tip the balance in Trump's favour.

Additionally, RFK Jr.'s entry into the race adds another layer of complexity. Despite his controversial views, his candidacy could appeal to certain segments of Democratic voters. Hence, he will further complicate the electoral landscape.

The lessons from past elections are clear: minor party candidates can have a major impact. Voters and the media need to scrutinise these candidates and recognise their potential to influence the outcome.