Can 2015 be the election year?

The biggest dilemma of PTI chief Imran Khan over the years has been his “political judgments” due to which he often takes “U-turns.” It has been happening quite frequently since 2013, particularly after his “dharna” in Islamabad in August last year.
The captain is now confident that 2015 is the election year and that his party will form the government. What can be the possible political scenario of 2015?Imran’s optimism of election this year is the same which he showed during “dharna”, but in the end it made the PML-N much stronger. If the local government election in 42 cantonment boards is any yardstick, Sharifs are firmly saddled in the Punjab.
It is good that Imran is once again boosting the morale of his workers after some disappointments in NA-246 and cantonment boards’ election, but he should also be realistic that the Judicial Commission’s findings can go either way. So, he should be mentally prepared for any possible outcome.
“2015 is the election year and the PTI will form the government,” he said in a youth convention on Sunday. The PTI has certainly replaced the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) as the second national level party after the PML-N and has shown a lot of potential for the future, but an early election may not suit it given the kind of problems it is facing within.
Imran has called the core committee meeting on April 29 to discuss the party’s performance in the recent by-election in Karachi and cantonment board polls. It will also discuss the forthcoming polls in Gilgit-Baltistan in May, local bodies’ elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in June and the Punjab in September. So, there are too many elections this year. In that context, it is certainly an election year.
Imran has already expressed his full confidence in the three-member JC, headed by the Chief Justice of Pakistan. He is confident rather over confidence about the commission’s findings. This is where Imran often faced problems. What if its findings disappoint him? Has he also prepared his workers in case of any disappointment?
Politics is the game of the possible and strange uncertainty; therefore, leaders need to prepare their workers for the possible outcome. Remember the kind of confidence Imran had in the former Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, former Chief Election Commissioner Justice (R) Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim and former Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. But, what happened after the election? Today, he believes Mr. Chaudhry was part of the alleged conspiracy.
The ruling PML-N’s confidence has increased after the cantonment board election. They are also confident about the possible outcome of Judicial Commission and are also sure of doing well in Gilgit-Baltistan.
So, the JC’s findings can set the tone for the next elections if it declared 2013 elections as “rigged.” It would certainly set the direction and can give real political advantage to the PTI. The time frame for the JC is 45 days and if not extended, it is likely to complete its findings by the end of next month or by first week of June.
But, what if the JC’s finding disappoint Imran and elections are held in 2018, as per schedule? It would not benefit the PML-N, but the impact of its finding can also come in the local bodies elections.
The parties which are ready for the elections are PML-N, PTI and MQM, as they have already mobilized their workers in the recent elections. However, parties, which may not like to see election this year after their recent performance are the PPP, JI, ANP JUI-F and PML-Q, as they still need time to reorganise themselves.
Thus if the elections are held this year, it will only be a contest between the PML-N and PTI, while the position of other parties may remain as it was in 2013. I doubt the PPP can improve in the Punjab and the ANP and JUI in the KP, but the MQM can further improve in urban Sindh.
Imran is also facing problems within the party. He himself is confronting an embarrassing position. His one-man Election Tribunal consisting of Justice (R) Wajeehuddin Ahmad, a highly reputed former judge of Supreme Court, refused his notification of dissolving the ET on the ground that since the new party elections had been announced the ET stands dissolved.
Justice Wajeehuddin, on Monday, continued proceedings on the election complaints against the PTI leaders. He was of the view that the PTI chairman did not implement his order of dissolving all bodies and holding of fresh elections. He was particularly annoyed that Jehangir Tareen was still holding the office despite serious allegations against him.
Imran wanted to attend the ET during his last visit to Karachi on April 19, but was prevented by some top PTI leaders followed by his decision to dissolve the ET, causing him embarrassment.
Now when his core committee will meet, they may take action against Justice Wajeehuddin for not following the party discipline and decision, but a man like Justice Wajeeh may not succumb to pressure. So, where will this situation lead to would be another story to tell.
So, 2015 can also be a year of PTI election though some leaders believe that if general elections are held this year, the party elections may be further delayed. They say the party suffered when they held elections prior to the general elections in 2013.Election or no election, there will be a lot of political activities and events this year.
The writer is the senior analyst and columnist of GEO, The News and Jang.