A season of surprises

In keeping with the roller-coaster politics of the past few weeks, yesterday too was a power-packed day. After the Pervaiz Elahi surprise by the PTI, a presumably upset Asif Ali Zardari too came on record to state it will be the opposition that chooses the next chief minister of Punjab. Some analysts have, however, wondered whether the PPP’s inevitable grouping in Punjab for the general election could affect the current political scenario, and whether Zardari may be considering this. Speculations about a rift between Chaudhry Shujaat and Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi over the latter’s decision have been somewhat quashed through an official statement shared with the media while analysts claim that there is many a slip between the cup and the lip. The PML-N has also claimed that the no-confidence motion against Usman Buzdar was presented at Elahi’s behest, but that the opposition has enough members on its side to oust the government in the centre.

All this has just led to even more uncertainty on Usman Buzdar’s resignation and Elahi’s eventual election – which the opposition has clearly said it will resist. Political observers say that, while Elahi has a lot of goodwill and is a seasoned politician, electing him as the next chief executive of the country’s largest province may prove to be challenging. The deciding factor may be the grouping within the PTI in Punjab. There is also talk of who the opposition will put up against Pervaiz Elahi when it comes to the vote in the assembly. Various names are coming forward and the Jehangir Tareen group will be a factor in any decision-making. There is some anticipation that Aleem Khan, a PTI loyalist who is now a dissident, may be chosen to take on Elahi, a difficult task given his lack of experience compared to Elahi but still a contest which could bring some extremely interesting results.

The politics of Punjab has been complicated over the last three and a half years. It was quite obvious to most very early on that Usman Buzdar was perhaps not up to the task of leading the province. It is a complete mystery why the prime minister had insisted on retaining him for so long, given that the Chaudhrys would have remained powerful allies had Pervaiz Elahi been given the post he so obviously wanted from the start. Add to this mix the ‘foreign conspiracy’ claimed by the government, and we have a perfect concoction for a political crisis that can drag on for a few more weeks. Per some reports, the conspiracy surrounding the alleged conspiracy letter has been denied by the ‘relevant quarters'. The government, however, has offered to show the letter to Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial, though one wonders why a letter concerning a security threat is being shown to the judiciary. These are serious matters and, as the political opposition and political analysts have said, the government must make sure it has enough of a reason and evidence to have disclosed the existence of such a letter. As the vote of no-confidence looms, speculations about the opposition’s strategy, the future of dissident members of the PTI if they vote against Prime Minister Imran Khan, and who the allies will choose have made the coming days more uncertain. The fact that the entire government machinery is busy dealing with this political crisis rather than focusing on governance and economy, in a country where people are already struggling to make ends meet, spells even more economic disaster.