Gaza violence and unrest at home raise spectre of new Israel election

OCCUPIED-LA-QUDS: Israel’s battle with Gaza militants and unprecedented inter-communal violence at home have further complicated efforts to form a government, raising the spectre of yet another general election, experts say.

That could be a political boon to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose best hope of extending his record 12 straight years in office could hang on a fifth Israeli election since April 2019.

But the ideologically divided anti-Netanyahu camp still has a narrow window to reach a deal that would oust the hawkish premier: centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid’s 28-day mandate to form a government expires on June 3.

"Most analysts regard a fifth election as the most probable outcome," said Toby Greene, a political scientist at Bar Ilan University. "But we have 10 days left, and that’s a very long time in Israeli politics." A Lapid-Bennett deal would have required at least some support from pro-Palestinian and non-Zionist Arab lawmakers, which was already uncomfortable political terrain both for them and for Bennett, a Jewish nationalist.

The chances of such a deal took a severe blow earlier this month as Gaza militants launched rockets into Israel and Arab rioters torched synagogues in multiple mixed communities inside Israel. That forced Bennett to "reconsider his choice to form a government together with Arab-supported parties," said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute think-tank.

Before conflict flared with armed Palestinian groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad on May 10, Netanyahu’s political future looked precarious. On trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, the premier had failed in a March 23 vote to secure enough seats with his allies to build a majority in Israel’s 120-seat parliament.

His mandate to form a government expired on May 4, handing Lapid a chance to try. But Yonatan Freeman, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said it was in Israel’s "political DNA to support the incumbent" when conflict flares.

As Israel ramped up its air strikes in Gaza in response to Palestinian rocket attacks, Netanyahu made joint appearances with his bitter political enemy, Defence Minister Benny Gantz.

Crisis leadership, experts say, may have helped Netanyahu reinforce an image that has helped him endure in politics for decades: the security-focussed statesman who defends Israel against external threats.

The crisis also "caused a fissure among the opposing camp," Plesner said. Lapid’s best, and possibly only, hope of forming a government involved a prospective deal with Naftali Bennett, leader of the right-wing religious Yamina party.

Bennett and Lapid are ideological opponents, but both have prioritised averting a fifth election and ending the divisive Netanyahu era. A deal would have seen Bennett serving as prime minister in a rotation, a move that could harm his standings among some rightwing supporters.

But at the same time, it would constitute a "huge opportunity for Bennett to present himself as prime ministerial material" as part of his efforts to become Netanyahu’s successor, Greene said. And without Bennett, centrist former television anchor Lapid has little space to make a deal to unite the splintered anti-Netanyahu camp.

After the Gaza crisis, "it’s unlikely, but not impossible," Plesner said. He added that Netanyahu, "as Israel’s most seasoned politician," may be now able to coax rivals into his camp. He listed Gantz and Gideon Saar, a right-winger who defected from Netanyahu’s Likud last year, as possible candidates. But with all blocs struggling to build a coalition, "the most likely outcome at this point is that Israel is headed to a fifth election," Plesner said.