Govt would have faced ‘cover-up’ claims over variant

LONDON: A top scientific adviser has defended the government’s decision to reveal evidence suggesting the UK coronavirus variant is more deadly, but said that the news needed to be “put into perspective”.

Professor Peter Horby, who chairs the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said that if the information had not been released, authorities may have been accused of “covering it up”.

It comes following a Downing Street press conference in which Boris Johnson said the new mutant strain may be associated with “a higher degree of mortality”. Prof Horby told BBC Breakfast on Saturday that although there were signs that the strain carried a higher risk of death, it was still “very, very small” to most people.

“Initial data didn’t suggest that this was any more serious than the old virus but now the data has started to come in, there are a number of streams of data that are coming in, that suggest there might be a small increase in risk of death,” he said.

“There are some limitations in the data so we need to be cautious with the interpretations but it is important that people understand that we are looking at this and this may be true.

“If you look at it as a relative change like 30 or 40 per cent then it sounds really bad but a big change in a very small risk takes it from a very small number to a slightly bigger, but still very small number, so for most people the risk is very, very small.

“People need to put it into perspective. This is a risk for certain age groups and that risk may have increased but for most people it is still not a serious disease.” Asked whether the government could be accused of scare-mongering by providing such data too early, Prof Horby replied: “I think a very important principle is transparency. Scientists are looking at the possibility that there is increased severity… and after a week of looking at the data we came to the conclusion that it was a realistic possibility. We need to be transparent about that. If we were not telling people about this we would be accused of covering it up.”

Other scientists have said it is still an “open question” whether the new coronavirus variant is more deadly. Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the BBC’s Today programme that the new strain was not a “game changer” in terms of dealing with the pandemic. “The question about whether it is more dangerous in terms of mortality I think is still open,” he said. “There is evidence it is more dangerous but this is a very dangerous virus. In terms of making the situation worse it is not a game changer. It is a very bad thing that is slightly worse.”

Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle said that more work was needed to establish whether the variant was more deadly. “There is some evidence, but it is very early evidence. It is small numbers of cases and it is far too early to say this will actually happen,” she told Today.

Prof Horby warned that complete control of other international coronavirus variants in future would be “almost impossible” but that certain measures would slow down their movement.

But he agreed that the UK would be safer “from a scientific point of view” if more measures were put in place. “Certainly measures like stricter quarantines and putting people in hotels for long periods will have an impact and it’s up to the government to decide whether they think the imposition of those is worth the benefits they’re likely to see,” he said.