‘US elections present a choice between competence and incompetence’

ISLAMABAD: Dr Daniel Markey, Senior Research Professor, John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Washington, DC, has said that the upcoming elections in the US present a choice between basic competence and incompetence.

Markey was speaking at a webinar on “Upcoming US elections, possible outcomes and prospects of relations with Pakistan” organised here by Centre for Strategic Perspectives, Institute of Strategic Studies.

Dr Markey said it t is a choice between two candidates -- Joe Biden who adheres to basic norms and rules, traditions and principles, and President Donald Trump who rejects many of these.

He was of the view that the upcoming election will have world shaping consequences both at home and abroad. He said that the domestic agenda in the upcoming elections are more severe due to the COVID-19, the social unrest and economic crisis that the US is facing which is a direct result of poor leadership and the incompetence from the top.

While discussing the foreign policy aspects, Dr Markey was of the view that America’s global role and leadership was always overstated which created an atmosphere of expectation by other nations and which gave US the benefit of doubt and advantage over other nations to get what it wants without asking for it.

He observed that under Biden's presidency, competition with China will be the organising principle of the American foreign policy. However, competition under the Biden administration won’t look the same as it looks under the Trump administration.

On US relations with Pakistan, Dr Markey was of the opinion that as long as Pakistan does not completely side with China in this competition, it may find many opportunities for cooperation with US in areas of security and economics as well as the resumption of the strategic dialogue. He further remarked that the relations with Pakistan also come in the background of Afghanistan and counter-terrorism. Afghanistan continues to drive US relations with Pakistan.

While talking about the US-India relations, D Markey said that it will be at the top of Washington’s strategic agenda in South Asia.

Nonetheless, he said, addressing India under the Biden administration will be a trickier act as the Biden administration will look at Delhi as a strategic balance against China but at the same time, Biden administration will raise more concerns regarding the illiberal tendencies in India.

“And if the Modi government keep up with its current trajectory, the US may find it difficult to see India as a partner.” Dr Rifaat Hussain from National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) was of the view that the upcoming US elections may turn out to be messy and unprecedented. Given the damage that the Trump administration caused to the US economy, its international image, its commitment to multilateralism, US reputation as a responsible state and an international leader suffered greatly.

He observed that the world is looking forward to a Biden administration. However, he said, the main states in which Trump won the last elections have little to no preference to vote for the democratic candidate, and it will be naïve to write-off President Trump’s victory in the upcoming elections.

He said that there may not be a sea change in the US approach towards Pakistan, however, the relations may not see the lows that it did during the early years of Trump administration - the approach will be more balanced and more traditional.

Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, Director-General, ISS, in his opening remarks, said that predicting the result of US elections is tricky. He highlighted two constants in US foreign policy overtures that will remain the same with marginal difference.

First, the US competition with China that will remain regardless of who comes into power. Secondly, US relations with India that might witness a marginal difference if Biden comes into power over the human rights violations in Indian Occupied Kashmir.

He said that the biggest change that is expected in the US approach towards globalisation and its leadership role in world affairs if Biden takes over. Nadeem Zaman Director, Association of Pakistani Americans, Texas, Khalid Mahmood, Chairperson, ISS, Najam Rafique, Director CSP at ISSI, also spoke on the occasion.