Confusion kills

Humanity hasn’t faced a challenge like the novel coronavirus in a hundred years. Millions of human lives are at stake. Our government is visibly confused. On March 22, at 3:30pm, PM Imran Khan, addressing the nation, enumerated the benefits of not locking-down and ruled out ‘total lockdown’. At 3:50pm, Syed Murad Ali Shah, Sindh’s chief minister, announced a ‘province-wide lockdown’. At 5:00pm, the Gilgit-Baltistan government decided to impose a ‘complete lockdown’. At 8:45pm, the government of Sindh officially imposed a ‘complete ban’ on public movement. Earlier the same day at 1:20pm, the Punjab government ‘sought military in aid of civil power to contain the virus outbreak in the province’. Even earlier at 10:00am, the government of Balochistan called for ‘military in aid for civil power under Article 245’.

On March 23, a ‘special Corps Commanders Conference reviewed COVID-19 spread’. After the conference, Major-General Babar Iftikhar, DG-ISPR, informed the media that COAS General Bajwa has ‘directed troops to be deployed and that congregational and other public gatherings are prohibited’.

On April 15, PM Imran Khan announced to “extend the partial lockdown across the country for the next two weeks with the opening of some sectors.” Now this was the mother of all confusions – partial lockdown extended! I, for one, was thoroughly confused. What did it mean? Lives are at stake.

On April 15, PM Imran Khan told us that the government would consult religious leaders on the opening of mosques and Taraweeh congregations during the holy month of Ramazan. Lo and behold, even before the consultation took place our clerics gave their verdict on the opening of the mosques and Taraweeh congregations. A state within a state! (Mufti Muneeb then took a U-turn).

According to modeling done by the Imperial College London Covid-19 Response Team, if the Government of Pakistan does nothing 4.4 million Pakistanis may require hospitalization and 691,000 may die (hospital beds available: 130,000). The same study claims that if the Government of Pakistan actively ‘suppresses’ the spread of the virus the loss of life will go down by more than 90 percent. Computer generated models are in front of us – how many could die if the government does nothing and how many lives can be saved if the government undertakes ‘suppression measures’. The mother of all questions in my mind: Is our government making decisions based on data?

Imagine, tailor shops are open but cloth shops are not. Construction is open but most of the supply chain is not. Export-oriented industries are open but export orders have been cancelled. There’s a federal understanding of the novel coronavirus spread. There’s a provincial understanding of the same. And, then there’s a military understanding. There’s no national understanding. As a consequence, there’s no national strategy.

Pakistan hasn’t faced a challenge like this before. When hundreds of thousands of lives are at stake, the government should clearly tell us what is expected of us and each and every citizen must follow and obey. But when the government itself is confused ‘confusion becomes the most honest response’.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh