Al-Azizia verdict

Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif once again faces the prospect of a long stint in prison. On Monday, Nawaz was found guilty by an accountability court in the Al-Azizia Steel Mills corruption reference, and handed down a sentence of seven years in prison. Nawaz did end up being acquitted in the Flagship Investments reference but the guilty verdict is likely to serve as another blow to the political future of the Sharif family and the PML-N. Legal experts will debate the merits of the verdict once the full judgement is released but it is notable that the short order has said that the burden of proof in the case lies with Nawaz – as opposed to the usual legal standard of an assumption of innocence on the part of the

defendant.

The main issue at hand was whether Nawaz Sharif possessed assets beyond his means. According to the Sharif family, the Al-Azizia Steel Mills were established from the proceeds of an investment Nawaz’s father made with the Qatari royal family. The truth of this could never be established as a Qatari prince refused to appear before a Joint Investigation Team in Pakistan. Whether that absence of testimony was enough to justify a guilty sentence is also sure to be debated by legal analysts in the coming days.

The Sharifs’ response was expected, with Nawaz saying that his conscience was clear and his daughter Maryam saying that the verdict was actually proof of Nawaz’s honesty. Politically, the PML-N has undoubtedly suffered blows because of the cases against the Sharif family. Its large majority in the National Assembly has disappeared and the party claims also to have lost many members to what it calls ‘pressure’. The new PML-N chief Shahbaz Sharif too is facing court cases.

However, the PML-N has not disintegrated, as many had predicted. The party ran close to the PTI in the general elections and even came close to holding on to the Punjab Assembly. One reason for that could be the rallies Nawaz held as he toured the country, hoping undoubtedly to fire up his voter base. But it is easier to do that when a general election is near. Now that the PML-N faces five years in the opposition – a time during which Nawaz is likely to be imprisoned – there is a question of whether the party can stay united. It will also have to decide if it wants to practise the politics of confrontation or accommodation. Nawaz’s destiny may have been decided by an accountability court but the party he founded still has to shape its own future.