Is Sharif still in trouble?

Politics is a game of opportunities. The Supreme Court (SC) has not disqualified Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a 3-2 split verdict, but the opposition, which apparently received a setback, has managed to bounce back to put Sharif under pressure to resign on moral grounds. Sharif has to keep his nerves to emerge 'clean' in 60 days.

The court decided to constitute a joint investigation team (JIT) for further probe into the matter. The JIT will work under the supervision of a new bench. Its finding will decide the fate of Sharif. The bench may not be the same, but the case is still wide open.

The verdict also gave a breathing space to the opposition in view of the two strong dissenting notes including the one from the head of the bench, Justice Asif Saeed Khosa, who disqualified Nawaz for not being ‘Sadiq and Ameen’.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan finally realised the importance of the parliament and his party may also join hands with Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in a bid to oust PM Sharif and let the PML nominate someone else for the top slot.

Following the judgment, the political temperature is all time high. Opposition parties in particular see the possible disqualification of the PM within 60 days, while the ruling camp shows confidence and sees another term for PM Sharif and the PML-N.

The PM himself is confidence that he would overcome the crisis and maintained his resolve that since 2013 elections, the opposition has been defeated on all fronts, political as well as legal.

For Sharif, it is a sign of relief that his daughter and political heir Maryam Nawaz has been cleared; but the matter of concern is that he himself is now under investigation. This is for the first time that a sitting PM will be facing any JIT. During the last PPP government, some sitting ministers did face serious investigation, and even its PM was convicted and disqualified in a contempt of court case by the SC. Gilani's son was once summoned by the JIT, while the FIA also recorded statements of some ministers in Benazir Bhutto murder case.

Imran believes that this verdict would ultimately lead to the downfall of Sharifs, the PPP sees it as a window of opportunity to push the PML-N to the corner and get closer to the PTI.

Now, it would be interesting to watch the possibility of Imran joining hands with Asif Zardari. And if it happens, it would be a classical example of politics of opportunities. For Imran, it may not be easy to either go to Zardari House or invite him to Banigala. He has been as harsh on Sharif as on Zardari, unlike Asif Zardari, who is still willing to work with him, though he called him an immature politician on Thursday.

The PPP also wants to take revenge from the PML, which played an important role in getting its prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani ousted through the court. In a way for the PPP, it’s time to settle the score.

Last week in Chakwal, Imran did not mind losing a seat to PML-N, but did not stop attacking Mr Zardari despite a local electoral alliance between the two parties, which finally ended after his speech.

But, Imran has already given green signal to his party to forge unity inside the NA and Senate and his own participation indicates that he now understands the importance of the parliament despite its weakness.

The SC judgement has provided a level playing field for all parties and the opposition looked more happy than the ruling PML-N, although the PTI expected disqualification of the PM without any further investigation. The PPP, on the other hand, claimed that the majority decision has given relief to the respondents, and the PTI was responsible for it.

The PML-N camp, after initial reaction and jubilation, now seems nervous, particularly the manner in which the Supreme Court five members bench decided to constitute the JIT, and included all premier intelligence agencies minus Intelligence Bureau. The ruling camp is also concerned over the inclusion of those agencies, which lacked expertise in white-collar crime.

Some of their leaders are not happy over reference of a classic novel, Godfather’, revolving around a mafia network in that case.

Sources said while on paper, the PML-N defended the SC judgment and believes that it has not only rejected the pleas of the PTI and other petitioners but also vindicated its position that the PM cannot be disqualified without an investigation. The JIT would now complete the probe under the supervision of a new bench, which the Chief Justice Saqib Nisar would constitute.

Although all sides have interpreted judgement in their own way, the fact remains that none of the five judges found petitioner's prayers unfounded. The only difference among them have been over disqualification of the PM without further investigation. They have now set the deadline of 60 days, meaning the issue would linger on till June, followed by a trial, if the JIT in its report found enough evidence for the trial.

Following the judgement, the opposition looked more aggressive and, despite their differences, came with one voice over the demand for PM's resignation.

Some PPP and PTI leaders hinted at the possibility of a grand opposition alliance, on one-point agenda i.e. PM's resignation and holding of free and fair elections under army's supervision within 90 days. Sources said an ice-breaking formula among the PPP and the PTI is under consideration and former president Asif Ali Zardari is also trying to bring the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) and the PTI closer in an alliance.

For PM Sharif, options are limited as except for the JUI-F, no other mainstream party is on its side, though MQM-Pakistan and Awami National Party (ANP) are acting neutral currently.

Sources said Prime Minister Sharif can offer his resignation in case the JIT finds him guilty, but at present his party believes PM should not resign as majority of judges in the SC want further investigation before they reach any conclusion.

The opposition wants PM step down for 60 days, and hand over premier's powers to senior minister or member of his choice. The option which is difficult for Sharif to consider at this stage and it all depends on how much pressure opposition could exert on him, both inside and outside the Parliament.

For the PPP, it’s more personal than political since the break-up of 'friendly relationship’ after 2015, when former President Asif Ali Zardari's closest friend Dr Asim Hussain was arrested. The latest outburst from AZ, came after disappearance of his three associates and the federal government refusal to remove IGP Sindh A D Khwaja.

How politics can change and yesterday's friendly opposition could go too far as only two years back, the PPP had rejected PTI and Imran's demand for PM resignation before the Judicial Commission, findings in 2013 election rigging case. Today, when three out of five judges in the SC want further investigation into allegation against the PM, the opposition stands united that he must step down before the JIT starts functioning.

JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, a day before the Panama verdict, stood behind the PM and rejected any political crisis. He wants his space back in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and chances of an alliance with the PTI looked bleak.

PM Sharif, despite apparent victory in the SC looked down but certainly not out. His arch political rival, Imran Khan, despite a setback, looked confident of finally getting Sharif's out in the next 60 days, but. can he play his cards well, this time is yet to be seen Wait and watch as the battle of nerves continues.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO