OPEC+ looking at deeper oil cuts ahead of Thursday meeting

LONDON: OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts despite its policy meeting being postponed to this Thursday amid a quota disagreement between some producers, an OPEC+ source said on Monday.

Several analysts have said they expect OPEC+ to extend or even deepen supply cuts into next year in order to support prices, which on Monday were trading just above $80 a barrel , down from near $98 in late September.

An OPEC+ source said he expected there to be an option for a "collective further reduction" on Thursday, without providing details. OPEC+ sources earlier this month said the group was set to consider additional cuts.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, will begin its online meetings to decide oil output levels at 1300 GMT on Thursday, according to a draft agenda seen by Reuters on Monday.

The meeting was delayed from Nov. 26. OPEC+ sources said this was because of a disagreement over output levels for African producers, although sources have since said the group has moved closer to a compromise on this point.

OPEC member Kuwait is committed to any decisions issued by OPEC, especially those that concern market quotas and oil production, the country's oil ministry said in a post on social media platform X.

On Thursday at 1300 GMT, ministers on an advisory panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee hold talks. This will be followed at 1400 GMT by a meeting of the full policy-making group of OPEC+ ministers, the agenda showed.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ have already pledged total oil output cuts of about 5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5 percent of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022.

This includes Saudi Arabia's additional voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd which is due to expire at the end of December, and a Russian export cut of 300,000 bpd also until the end of the year.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell on Monday, with the Brent benchmark hovering around $80 a barrel as investors awaited OPEC+ meeting and expected curbs on supplies into 2024.

Brent crude futures were down 37 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $80.21 a barrel by 1633 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $75.25. Both contracts lost $1 in early trading.

Prices tumbled midweek when OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia - postponed to Nov. 30 a ministerial meeting to iron out differences on production targets for African producers.

"Although there are headlines that Saudi has made progress reaching consensus, there is limited risk appetite to buy crude ahead of the formal announcement," said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth US.

"Until we get clarity on how this plays out, expect crude to struggle to rally," she added. ING analysts said they expect Saudi Arabia to roll over its additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) into next year, and Russia to extend its own cuts.

"Clearly, if we do not see this, it would put further downward pressure on the market," they said in a note. Estimated exports by OPEC countries have declined to 1.3 million bpd below levels in April, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note, in line with the group's supply targets.

"We still expect an extension of the unilateral Saudi and Russia cuts through at least the first quarter of 2024," the bank added. Meanwhile, efforts by Iraq to resume northern crude exports via Turkey are ongoing. Iraqi oil officials will meet representatives of international oil companies and Iraqi Kurdish officials in early December to discuss contract changes central to the issue, a deputy minister said.

The International Energy Agency said it expects a slight surplus in global oil markets in 2024 even if OPEC+ nations extend their cuts into next year. Higher crude stockpiles in the United States have also put downward pressure on prices, analysts said. However, four analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 24.